A stunningly accurate prediction on House and Senate control from August has gone viral after results
A prediction about the US midterms made on Twitter at the end of August has gone viral for apparently accurately guessing the outcome of the election.
User “umichvoter”, who appears to be 22-years-old with an interest in politics and elections currently studying for a medical degree, made the prediction on 31 August.
He wrote: “Based on special elections and generic ballot and president approval trends, I’d say we are probably at about a 50-49 Dem senate with GA headed to runoff and 219-216 GOP house.”
“Things could change tho,” he added.
As the dust settles and final votes are counted in House races, it appears the prediction may have been spot on.
On Friday, incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly won his race in Arizona, taking the party’s total Senate wins to 49.
By Saturday evening, fellow incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto was reelected in Nevada, guaranteeing Democrats control of the upper chamber of Congress even before the Georgia runoff takes place on 6 December.
Based on special elections and generic ballot and president approval trends, I’d say we are probably at about a 50-49 Dem senate with GA headed to runoff and 219-216 GOP house. Things could change tho
— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) September 1, 2022
Democrat John Fetterman has already won the open Pennsylvania Senate seat earlier in the week and Senator Maggie Hassan was also reelected in New Hampshire.
In the lower chamber, while there are still House races being tallied up, on Monday morning NBC News projected that Republicans would take the majority, but only by a super slim margin of three seats — mirroring the prediction.
Umichvoter was praised for his “God-tier prediction” given more than two months prior to election day.
Another Twitter user called it the “finest aged tweet ever to be posted on this website,” while another wrote: “I think this means you get control of Five Thirty Eight now,” referring to the polling data website.
One person asked for his thoughts on the lottery numbers, while another asked: “Why are the good Twitter election analysts nailing it when the big names are a mile off?”