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How Successful Are Rookies: 2019 Edition

Jared Johnson

With the 2019 NBA Draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the success rate of past draft classes dating back to the 2003-04 season. In this column, I will be focusing primarily on lottery picks, as we typically don't see much production outside that range.

 

Some things of note:

I found that over the past 16 years, the No. 1 overall selection has put together a quality fantasy season 12 out of 16 times (although two of those players had delayed debuts).

The curse of the No. 2 pick has held true 10 times over the past 16 years.

The third overall selection has had a meaningful fantasy season 11 times over the past 16 years (although Joel Embiid’s debut took two years to get to).

Only eight times has a player drafted outside of the top-10 put up a relevant fantasy season, although it’s a trend that’s been happening more frequently lately, with five of these names being added to the list over the past two years: Josh Smith, Klay Thompson, Malcolm Brogdon, Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, John Collins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell Robinson

Over the past 16 years, only two players have been able to produce first-round value during their rookie season: Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns.

While second-round picks can certainly establish themselves later in their careers, only twice over the past 16 years has a player from the second round produced a meaningful fantasy season – Malcolm Brogdon and Mitchell Robinson.

Before we delve into the data, I want to define the term “bust.” When I’m using the word bust in this column, it doesn’t necessarily denote that this selection was a bust on the long-term, just that during their rookie year they either didn’t play due to injury or their numbers that specific year weren’t anything special. In order to earn the bust moniker, said player needed to be a top-3 overall selection or someone with a high ADP.

For the “performers,” they simply needed to rank within the top-150 in 9-cat leagues.

 

The Fabled 2003 Draft Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CLE

LeBron James

St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)

2

DET

Darko Milicic

Serbia

3

DEN

Carmelo Anthony

Syracuse

4

TOR

Chris Bosh

Georgia Tech

5

MIA

Dwyane Wade

Marquette

6

LAC

Chris Kaman

Central Michigan

7

CHI

Kirk Hinrich

Kansas

8

MIL

T.J. Ford

Texas

9

NYK

Mike Sweetney

Georgetown

10

WAS

Jarvis Hayes

Georgia

11

GSW

Mickael Pietrus

France

12

SEA

Nick Collison

Kansas

13

MEM

Marcus Banks

UNLV

14

SEA

Luke Ridnour

Oregon

15

ORL

Reece Gaines

Louisville

16

BOS

Troy Bell

Boston College

17

PHO

Zarko Cabarkapa

Serbia

18

NOH

David West

Xavier

19

UTA

Sasha Pavlovic

Montenegro

20

BOS

Dahntay Jones

Duke

21

ATL

Boris Diaw

France

22

NJN

Zoran Planinic

Croatia

23

POR

Travis Outlaw

Starkville HS (MS)

24

LAL

Brian Cook

Illinois

25

DET

Carlos Delfino

Argentina

26

MIN

Ndudi Ebi

Westbury Christian School (Houston)

27

MEM

Kendrick Perkins

Ozen HS (TX)

28

SAS

Leandro Barbosa

Brazil

29

DAL

Josh Howard

Wake Forest

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Zaza Pachulia (No. 42, ORL), Kyle Korver (No. 51, NJ)

 

Performers

 

LeBron James: 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.5 turnovers (41.7 FG, 75.4 FT)
79 games played – 4th round value

Carmelo Anthony: 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.0 turnovers (42.6 FG, 77.7 FT)
82 games played – 7th round value

Chris Bosh: 11.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (45.9 FG, 70.1 FT)
75 games played – 9th round value

Dwyane Wade: 16.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks 3.2 turnovers (46.5 FG, 74.7 FT)
61 games played – 8th round value

 

BUSTED

Darko Milicic: 1.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 blocks (26.2 FG, 58.3 FT) 
34 games played

 

2004 Draft Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

ORL

Dwight Howard

Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy

2

CHA

Emeka Okafor

Connecticut

3

CHI

Ben Gordon

Connecticut

4

LAC

Shaun Livingston

Peoria Central HS (IL)

5

WAS

Devin Harris

Wisconsin

6

ATL

Josh Childress

Stanford

7

PHO

Luol Deng

Duke

8

TOR

Rafael Araujo

Brigham Young

9

PHI

Andre Iguodala

Arizona

10

CLE

Luke Jackson

Oregon

11

GSW

Andris Biedrins

Latvia

12

SEA

Robert Swift

Bakersfield HS (CA)

13

POR

Sebastian Telfair

Lincoln HS (Brooklyn, NY)

14

UTA

Kris Humphries

Minnesota

15

BOS

Al Jefferson

Prentiss HS (MS)

16

UTA

Kirk Snyder

University of Nevada, Reno

17

ATL

Josh Smith

Oak Hill Academy (VA)

18

NOH

J.R. Smith

St. Benedict's Preparatory School (NJ)

19

MIA

Dorell Wright

Leuzinger HS (CA)

20

DEN

Jameer Nelson

St. Joseph's

21

UTA

Pavel Podkolzin

Russia

22

NJN

Viktor Khryapa

Ukraine

23

POR

Sergei Monia

Russia

24

BOS

Delonte West

St. Joseph's

25

BOS

Tony Allen

Oklahoma State

26

SAC

Kevin Martin

Western Carolina

27

LAL

Sasha Vujacic

Slovenia

28

SAS

Beno Udrih

Slovenia

29

IND

David Harrison

Colorado

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Anderson Varejao (No. 30, CLE), Trevor Ariza (No. 43, NYK)

 

Performers

 

Dwight Howard: 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 2.0 turnovers (52.0 FG, 67.1 FT)
82 games played – 4th round value (punting FT)

Emeka Okafor: 15.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.7 turnovers (44.7 FG, 60.9 FT) 
73 games played – 5th round value (punting FT)

 

Specialists

 

Ben Gordon: 15.1 points, 2.0 assists, 1.6 three-pointers, 2.3 turnovers (41.1 FG, 86.3 FT)
82 games played – 15th round value

Andre Iguodala: 9.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (49.3 FG, 74.3 FT)
82 games played – 5th round value

Josh Smith: 9.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (45.5 FG, 68.8 FT)
74 games played – 9th round value

 

2005 Draft Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

MIL

Andrew Bogut

Utah

2

ATL

Marvin Williams

North Carolina

3

UTA

Deron Williams

Illinois

4

NOH

Chris Paul

Wake Forest

5

CHA

Raymond Felton

North Carolina

6

POR

Martell Webster

Seattle Preparatory School

7

TOR

Charlie Villanueva

Connecticut

8

NYK

Channing Frye

Arizona

9

GSW

Ike Diogu

Arizona State

10

LAL

Andrew Bynum

St. Joseph HS (NJ)

11

ORL

Fran Vasquez

Spain

12

LAC

Yaroslav Korolev

Russia

13

CHA

Sean May

North Carolina

14

MIN

Rashad McCants

North Carolina

15

NJN

Antoine Wright

Texas A&M

16

TOR

Joey Graham

Oklahoma State

17

IND

Danny Granger

New Mexico

18

BOS

Gerald Green

Gulf Shores Academy (Houston)

19

MEM

Hakim Warrick

Syracuse

20

DEN

Julius Hodge

North Carolina State

21

PHO

Nate Robinson

Washington

22

DEN

Jarrett Jack

Georgia Tech

23

SAC

Francisco Garcia

Louisville

24

HOU

Luther Head

Illinois

25

SEA

Johan Petro

France

26

DET

Jason Maxiell

Cincinnati

27

POR

Linas Kleiza

Missouri

28

SAS

Ian Mahinmi

France

29

MIA

Wayne Simien

Kansas

30

NYK

David Lee

Florida

 

Notable Second-Rounders: C.J. Miles (No. 34, UTA), Ersan Ilyasova (No. 36, MIL), Monta Ellis (No. 40, GSW), Marcin Gortat (No. 57, PHO)

 

Performers

 

Chris Paul: 16.1 points, 7.8 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.3 turnovers (43.0 FG, 84.7 FT)
78 games played – 2nd round value

Raymond Felton: 11.9 points, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.2 triples, 2.3 turnovers (39.1 FG, 72.8 FT)

80 games played – 12th round value

Andrew Bogut: 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, (53.3 FG, 62.9  FT)
82 games played – 9th round value

 

BUSTED

 

Marvin Williams: 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 turnovers (44.3 FG, 74.7 FT)
79 games played

 

2006 Draft Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

TOR

Andrea Bargnani

Italy

2

CHI

LaMarcus Aldridge

Texas

3

CHA

Adam Morrison

Gonzaga

4

POR

Tyrus Thomas

Louisiana State

5

ATL

Shelden Williams

Duke

6

MIN

Brandon Roy

Washington

7

BOS

Randy Foye

Villanova

8

HOU

Rudy Gay

Connecticut

9

GSW

Patrick O'Bryant

Bradley

10

SEA

Mouhamed Sene

Senegal

11

ORL

J.J. Redick

Duke

12

NOK

Hilton Armstrong

Connecticut

13

PHI

Thabo Sefolosha

Switzerland

14

UTA

Ronnie Brewer

Arkansas

15

NOK

Cedric Simmons

North Carolina State

16

CHI

Rodney Carney

Memphis

17

IND

Shawne Williams

Memphis

18

WAS

Oleksiy Pecherov

Ukraine

19

SAC

Quincy Douby

Rutgers

20

NYK

Renaldo Balkman

South Carolina

21

PHO

Rajon Rondo

Kentucky

22

NJN

Marcus Williams

Connecticut

23

NJN

Josh Boone

Connecticut

24

MEM

Kyle Lowry

Villanova

25

CLE

Shannon Brown

Michigan State

26

LAL

Jordan Farmar

UCLA

27

PHO

Sergio Rodriguez

Spain

28

DAL

Maurice Ager

Michigan State

29

NYK

Mardy Collins

Temple

30

POR

Joel Freeland

England

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Paul Millsap (No. 47, UTA)

 

Performers

 

Brandon Roy: 17.1 points, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.1 turnovers (45.6 FG, 83.8 FT)
57 games – 5th round value L

 

BUSTED

 

Andrea Bargnani: 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 three-pointers (42.7 FG, 82.4 FT)
65 games

LaMarcus Aldridge: 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 blocks (50.3 FG, 72.2 FT)
63 games played

*Aldridge’s numbers suffered his rookie year because he was stuck playing behind Zach Randolph

 

2007 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

POR

Greg Oden

Ohio State

2

SEA

Kevin Durant

Texas

3

ATL

Al Horford

Florida

4

MEM

Mike Conley

Ohio State

5

BOS

Jeff Green

Georgetown

6

MIL

Yi Jianlian

China

7

MIN

Corey Brewer

Florida

8

CHA

Brandan Wright

North Carolina

9

CHI

Joakim Noah

Florida

10

SAC

Spencer Hawes

Washington

11

ATL

Acie Law

Texas A&M

12

PHI

Thaddeus Young

Georgia Tech

13

NOK

Julian Wright

Kansas

14

LAC

Al Thornton

Florida State

15

DET

Rodney Stuckey

Eastern Washington

16

WAS

Nick Young

Southern California

17

NJN

Sean Williams

Boston College

18

GSW

Marco Belinelli

Italy

19

LAL

Javaris Crittenton

Georgia Tech

20

MIA

Jason Smith

Colorado State

21

PHI

Daequan Cook

Ohio State

22

CHA

Jared Dudley

Boston College

23

NYK

Wilson Chandler

DePaul

24

PHO

Rudy Fernandez

Spain

25

UTA

Morris Almond

Rice

26

HOU

Aaron Brooks

Oregon

27

DET

Arron Afflalo

UCLA

28

SAS

Tiago Splitter

Brazil

29

PHO

Alando Tucker

Wisconsin

30

PHI

Petteri Koponen

Finland

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Marc Gasol (No. 48, LAL), Ramon Sessions (No. 56, MIL), Carl Landry (No. 31, SEA), Glen Davis (No. 35, SEA)

 

Performers

 

Kevin Durant: 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers (43.0 FG, 87.3 FT)
80 games played – 7th round value

Al Horford: 10.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.7 Turnovers (49.9 FG, 73.1 FT)
81 games played – 8th round value

 

Specialist

 

Rudy Fernandez: 10.4 points, 2.0 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 1.1 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 83.9 FT)
78 games played

 

BUSTED

 

Greg Oden: 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks (56.4 FG, 63.7 FT)
61 games played

 

2008 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CHI

Derrick Rose

Memphis

2

MIA

Michael Beasley

Kansas State

3

MIN

O.J. Mayo

Southern California

4

SEA

Russell Westbrook

UCLA

5

MEM

Kevin Love

UCLA

6

NYK

Danilo Gallinari

Italy

7

LAC

Eric Gordon

Indiana

8

MIL

Joe Alexander

West Virginia

9

CHA

D.J. Augustin

Texas

10

NJN

Brook Lopez

Stanford

11

IND

Jerryd Bayless

Arizona

12

SAC

Jason Thompson

Rider

13

POR

Brandon Rush

Kansas

14

GSW

Anthony Randolph

Louisiana State

15

PHO

Robin Lopez

Stanford

16

PHI

Marreese Speights

Florida

17

TOR

Roy Hibbert

Georgetown

18

WAS

JaVale McGee

University of Nevada, Reno

19

CLE

J.J. Hickson

North Carolina State

20

CHA

Alexis Ajinca

France

21

NJN

Ryan Anderson

California

22

ORL

Courtney Lee

Western Kentucky

23

UTA

Kosta Koufos

Ohio State

24

SEA

Serge Ibaka

Congo

25

HOU

Nicolas Batum

France

26

SAS

George Hill

IUPUI

27

NOH

Darrell Arthur

Kansas

28

MEM

Donte Greene

Syracuse

29

DET

D.J. White

Indiana

30

BOS

J.R. Giddens

New Mexico

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Nikola Pekovic (No. 31, MIN), Mario Chalmers (No. 34, MIN), DeAndre Jordan (No. 35, LAC), Goran Dragic (No. 45, SA), Omer Asik (No. 36, POR)

 

Performers

 

Derrick Rose: 16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 turnovers (47.3 FG, 78.8 FT)
81 games played – 11th round value

O.J. Mayo: 18.5 points, 3.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.8 3-pointers, 2.8 Turnovers (43.8 FG, 87.9 FT)
82 games played – 8th round value

Russell Westbrook: 15.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 3.3 turnovers (39.8 FGs, 81.5 FTs)
82 games played – 9th round value (punting turnovers)

Kevin Love: 11.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.0 three-pointers (45.9 FG, 78.9 FT)
81 games played – 14th round value
*Love’s rookie year could have been better, but he was stuck playing behind Al Jefferson for much of the season

Eric Gordon: 16.1 points, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.7 three-pointers (38.9 FG, 85.4 FT)
78 games played – 7th round value

Brook Lopez: 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (53.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played – 5th round value

 

BUSTED

 

Michael Beasley: 13.9 points, 5.4 boards, 1.0 assist, 1.5 turnovers (47.2 FG, 77.2 FT)

81 games played

 

2009 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

LAC

Blake Griffin*

Oklahoma

2

MEM

Hasheem Thabeet

Connecticut

3

OKC

James Harden

Arizona State

4

SAC

Tyreke Evans

Memphis

5

MIN

Ricky Rubio

Spain

6

MIN

Jonny Flynn

Syracuse

7

GSW

Stephen Curry

Davidson College

8

NYK

Jordan Hill

Arizona

9

TOR

DeMar DeRozan

Southern California

10

MIL

Brandon Jennings

Oak Hill Academy (VA)

11

NJN

Terrence Williams

Louisville

12

CHA

Gerald Henderson

Duke

13

IND

Tyler Hansbrough

North Carolina

14

PHO

Earl Clark

Louisville

15

DET

Austin Daye

Gonzaga

16

CHI

James Johnson

Wake Forest

17

PHI

Jrue Holiday

UCLA

18

MIN

Ty Lawson

North Carolina

19

ATL

Jeff Teague

Wake Forest

20

UTA

Eric Maynor

Virginia Commonwealth

21

NOH

Darren Collison

UCLA

22

POR

Victor Claver

Spain

23

SAC

Omri Casspi

Israel

24

DAL

Byron Mullens

Ohio State

25

OKC

Rodrigue Beaubois

Guadeloupe

26

CHI

Taj Gibson

Southern California

27

MEM

DeMarre Carroll

Missouri

28

MIN

Wayne Ellington

North Carolina

29

LAL

Toney Douglas

Florida State

30

CLE

Christian Eyenga

Congo

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Jodie Meeks (No. 41, MIL), Patrick Beverley (No. 42, LAL), Danny Green (No. 46, CLE), Patty Mills (No. 55, POR)

 

Performers

 

Tyreke Evans: 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.5 three-pointers, 3.0 turnovers (45.8 FG, 74.8 FT) 
72 games played – 6th round value

Stephen Curry: 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.9 steals 2.1 three-pointers (46.2 FG, 88.5 FT)
77 games played – 1st round value

Brandon Jennings: 15.5 points, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 three-pointers (37.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played – 10th round value

 

BUSTED

Hasheem Thabeet: 3.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks (58.8 FG, 58.1 FT)
68 games played

James Harden: 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 three-pointers (40.3 FG, 80.8 FT)
76 games played
*It feels so strange to delve out the bust term to Chef Harden, but these numbers really wouldn’t have helped a team in standard leagues.

 

Delayed

 

Blake Griffin* (injured actual rookie year): 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.7 turnovers (50.6 FG, 64.2 FT)
82 games played (2010-11) – 7th round value

Ricky Rubio* (didn’t make NBA debut until 2011): 10.6 points, 8.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 3.2 Turnovers (35.7 FG, 80.3 FT)

41 games played – 6th round value

 

2010 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

WAS

John Wall

Kentucky

2

PHI

Evan Turner

Ohio State

3

NJN

Derrick Favors

Georgia Tech

4

MIN

Wes Johnson

Syracuse

5

SAC

DeMarcus Cousins

Kentucky

6

GSW

Ekpe Udoh

Baylor

7

DET

Greg Monroe

Georgetown

8

LAC

Al-Farouq Aminu

Wake Forest

9

UTA

Gordon Hayward

Butler

10

IND

Paul George

Cal State Fresno

11

NOH

Cole Aldrich

Kansas

12

MEM

Xavier Henry

Kansas

13

TOR

Ed Davis

North Carolina

14

HOU

Patrick Patterson

Kentucky

15

MIL

Larry Sanders

Virginia Commonwealth

16

MIN

Luke Babbitt

University of Nevada, Reno

17

CHI

Kevin Seraphin

France

18

OKC

Eric Bledsoe

Kentucky

19

BOS

Avery Bradley

Texas

20

SAS

James Anderson

Oklahoma State

21

OKC

Craig Brackins

Iowa State

22

POR

Elliot Williams

Memphis

23

MIN

Trevor Booker

Clemson

24

ATL

Damion James

Texas

25

MEM

Dominique Jones

South Florida

26

OKC

Quincy Pondexter

Washington

27

NJN

Jordan Crawford

Xavier

28

MEM

Greivis Vasquez

Maryland

29

ORL

Daniel Orton

Kentucky

30

WAS

Lazar Hayward

Marquette

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Hassan Whiteside (No. 33, SAC), Lance Stephenson (No. 40, IND)

 

Performers

 

John Wall: 16.4 points, 8.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.8 turnovers (40.9 FG, 76.6 FT) 
69 games played – 9th round value

DeMarcus Cousins: 14.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.8 blocks, 3.3 turnovers (43.0 FGs, 68.7 FTs)

81 games played – 10th round value (punting turnovers)

 

BUSTED

Evan Turner: 7.2 points, 2.0 assists, 3.9 rebounds (42.5 FG, 80.8 FT)
78 games played

Derrick Favors: 6.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.9 blocks (51.7 FG, 59.5 FT)
78 games played

 

2011 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CLE

Kyrie Irving

Duke

2

MIN

Derrick Williams

Arizona

3

UTA

Enes Kanter

Turkey

4

CLE

Tristan Thompson

Texas

5

TOR

Jonas Valanciunas

Lithuania

6

WAS

Jan Vesely

Czech Republic

7

SAC

Bismack Biyombo

Congo

8

DET

Brandon Knight

Kentucky

9

CHA

Kemba Walker

Connecticut

10

MIL

Jimmer Fredette

Brigham Young

11

GSW

Klay Thompson

Washington State

12

UTA

Alec Burks

Colorado

13

PHO

Markieff Morris

Kansas

14

HOU

Marcus Morris

Kansas

15

IND

Kawhi Leonard

San Diego State

16

PHI

Nikola Vucevic

Southern California

17

NYK

Iman Shumpert

Georgia Tech

18

WAS

Chris Singleton

Florida State

19

CHA

Tobias Harris

Tennessee

20

MIN

Donatas Motiejunas

Lithuania

21

POR

Nolan Smith

Duke University

22

DEN

Kenneth Faried

Morehead State

23

HOU

Nikola Mirotic

Montenegro

24

OKC

Reggie Jackson

Boston College

25

BOS

MarShon Brooks

Providence College

26

DAL

Jordan Hamilton

Texas

27

NJN

JaJuan Johnson

Purdue

28

CHI

Norris Cole

Cleveland State

29

SAS

Cory Joseph

Texas

30

CHI

Jimmy Butler

Marquette

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Bogdan Bogdanovic (No. 31, MIA), Chandler Parsons (No. 38, HOU)

 

Performers

 

Kyrie Irving: 18.5 points, 5.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 three-pointers, 3.1 turnovers (46.9 FG, 87.2 FT) 
51 games played (lockout year) – 4th round value

Brandon Knight: 12.8 points, 3.8 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.5 FG, 75.9 FT)
66 games played (lockout year) – 12th round value (punting turnovers)

Klay Thompson: 12.5 points, 2.0 assists, 1.7 three-pointers (44.3 FG, 86.8 FT)
66 games played (lockout year) – 11th round value

 

Specialists

 

Iman Shumpert: 9.5 points, 2.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals (40.1 FG, 79.8 FT)
59 games played (lockout year)

 

BUSTED

 

Derrick Williams: 8.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 Turnovers (41.2 FG, 69.7 FT)
66 games played (lockout year)

 

Enes Kanter: 4.6 points, 4.2 rebounds (49.6 FG, 6.7 FT)

66 games played (lockout year)

 

2012 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

NOH

Anthony Davis

University of Kentucky

2

CHA

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

University of Kentucky

3

WAS

Bradley Beal

University of Florida

4

CLE

Dion Waiters

Syracuse University

5

SAC

Thomas Robinson

University of Kansas

6

POR

Damian Lillard

Weber State University

7

GSW

Harrison Barnes

University of North Carolina

8

TOR

Terrence Ross

University of Washington

9

DET

Andre Drummond

University of Connecticut

10

NOH

Austin Rivers

Duke University

11

POR

Meyers Leonard

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

12

HOU

Jeremy Lamb

University of Connecticut

13

PHO

Kendall Marshall

University of North Carolina

14

MIL

John Henson

University of North Carolina

15

PHI

Maurice Harkless

St. John's University

16

HOU

Royce White

Iowa State University

17

DAL

Tyler Zeller

University of North Carolina

18

HOU

Terrence Jones

University of Kentucky

19

ORL

Andrew Nicholson

St. Bonaventure University

20

DEN

Evan Fournier

Poiters Basket 86 (France)

21

BOS

Jared Sullinger

Ohio State University

22

BOS

Fab Melo

Syracuse University

23

ATL

John Jenkins

Vanderbilt University

24

CLE

Jared Cunningham

Oregon State University

25

MEM

Tony Wroten

University of Washington

26

IND

Miles Plumlee

Duke University

27

MIA

Arnett Moultrie

Mississippi State University

28

OKC

Perry Jones

Baylor University

29

CHI

Marquis Teague

University of Kentucky

30

GSW

Festus Ezeli

Vanderbilt University

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Draymond Green (No. 35, GSW), Jae Crowder (No. 34, CLE), Khris Middleton (No. 39, DET)

 

Performers

 

Anthony Davis: 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks, 1.4 Turnovers (51.6 FG, 75.1 FT)
64 games played – 3rd round value

Bradley Beal: 13.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.0 FG, 78.6 FT)
56 games played – 11th round value

Damian Lillard: 19.0 points, 6.5 assists, 2.3 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 3.0 turnovers (42.0 FG, 84.4 FT) 
82 games played – 5th round value

 

 

Specialists

 

Andre Drummond: 7.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks (60.8 FG, 37.1 FT)
60 games played

Dion Waiters: 14.7 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.0 three-pointer (41.2 FG, 74.6 FT)
61 games played

 

 

2013 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CLE

Anthony Bennett

UNLV

2

ORL

Victor Oladipo

Indiana

3

WAS

Otto Porter

Georgetown

4

CHA

Cody Zeller

Indiana

5

PHO

Alex Len

Maryland

6

NO

Nerlens Noel

Kentucky

7

SAC

Ben McLemore

Kansas

8

DET

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Georgia

9

MIN

Trey Burke

Michigan

10

POR

C.J. McCollum

Lehigh

11

PHI

Michael Carter-Williams

Syracuse

12

OKC

Steven Adams

Pittsburgh

13

BOS

Kelly Olynyk

Gonzaga

14

UTA

Shabazz Muhammad

UCLA

15

MIL

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Greece

16

BOS

Lucas Nogueira

Brazil

17

ATL

Dennis Schroeder

Germany

18

ATL

Shane Larkin

Miami

19

CLE

Sergey Karasev

Russia

20

CHI

Tony Snell

New Mexico

21

UTA

Gorgui Dieng

Louisville

22

BKN

Mason Plumlee

Duke

23

IND

Solomon Hill

Arizona

24

NYK

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Michigan

25

LAC

Reggie Bullock

North Carolina

26

MIN

Andre Roberson

Colorado

27

DEN

Rudy Gobert

France

28

SAS

Livio Jean-Charles

France

29

OKC

Archie Goodwin

Kentucky

30

PHO

Nemanja Nedovic

Serbia

 

Performers

 

Victor Oladipo: 13.8 points, 4.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 3.2 Turnovers (41.9 FG, 78.0 FT)
80 games played – 11th round value

Michael Carter-Williams: 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.9 steals (40.5 FG, 70.3 FT)
70 games played – 8th round value

 

BUSTED

 

Anthony Bennett: 4.2 points, 3.0 rebounds (35.6 FG, 63.8 FT)

52 games played

Otto Porter: 2.1 points, 1.5 rebounds (36.3 FG, 66.7 FT)

37 games played

 

Delayed

 

Nerlens Noel: 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.9 blocks (46.2 FG, 60.9 FT)

75 games played – 5th round value

 

2014 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CLE

Andrew Wiggins

Kansas

2

MIL

Jabari Parker

Duke

3

PHI

Joel Embiid

Kansas

4

ORL

Aaron Gordon

Arizona

5

UTA

Dante Exum

Australia

6

BOS

Marcus Smart

Oklahoma State

7

LAL

Julius Randle

Kentucky

8

SAC

Nik Stauskas

Michigan

9

CHA

Noah Vonleh

Indiana

10

PHI

Elfrid Payton

Louisiana Lafayette

11

DEN

Doug McDermott

Creighton

12

ORL

Dario Saric

Croatia

13

MIN

Zach LaVine

UCLA

14

PHO

T.J. Warren

NC State

15

ATL

Adreian Payne

Michigan State

16

CHI

Jusuf Nurkic

Bosnia

17

BOS

James Young

Kentucky

18

PHO

Tyler Ennis

Syracuse

19

CHI

Gary Harris

Michigan State

20

TOR

Bruna Caboclo

Brazil

21

OKC

Mitch McGary

Michigan

22

MEM

Jordan Adams

UCLA

23

UTA

Rodney Hood

Duke

24

CHA

Shabazz Napier

Connecticut

25

HOU

Clint Capela

Switzerland

26

MIA

P.J. Hairston

North Carolina

27

PHO

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Serbia

28

LAC

C.J. Wilcox

Washington

29

OKC

Josh Huestis

Stanford

30

SAS

Kyle Anderson

UCLA

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Nikola Jokic (No. 41, DEN), Spencer Dinwiddie (No. 38, DET), Jordan Clarkson (No. 46, WAS)

 

Performers

 

Andrew Wiggins: 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.6 blocks, 2.2 Turnovers

(43.7 FG, 76.0 FT)
82 games played – 11th round value

Elfrid Payton: 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.5 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 55.1 FT)
82 games played – 10th round value (punting FT)

 

BUSTED

 

Jabari Parker: 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.9 Turnovers (49.0 FG, 69.7 FT)
25 games played

The stats were okay, but only making it through 25 games warrants the bust label for the season.

 

Delayed

 

Joel Embiid: 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 triples, 2.4 blocks (46.6 FG, 78.3 FT)

31 games played – 4th round value

 

2015 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

MIN

Karl-Anthony Towns

Kentucky

2

LAL

D’Angelo Russell

Ohio State

3

PHI

Jahlil Okafor

Duke

4

NYK

Kristaps Porzingis

Latvia

5

ORL

Mario Hezonja

Croatia

6

SAC

Willie Cauley-Stein

Kentucky

7

DEN

Emmanuel Mudiay

Congo

8

DET

Stanley Johnson

Arizona

9

CHA

Frank Kaminsky

Wisconsin

10

MIA

Justise Winslow

Duke

11

IND

Myles Turner

Texas

12

UTA

Trey Lyles

Kentucky

13

PHX

Devin Booker

Kentucky

14

OKC

Cameron Payne

Murray State

15

WAS

Kelly Oubre

Kansas

16

BOS

Terry Rozier

Louisville

17

MIL

Rashad Vaughn

UNLC

18

HOU

Sam Dekker

Wisconsin

19

NYK

Jerian Grant

Notre Dame

20

TOR

Deion Wright

Utah

21

DAL

Justin Anderson

Virginia

22

CHI

Bobby Portis

Arkansas

23

BKN

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Arizona

24

MIN

Tyus Jones

Duke

25

MEM

Jarell Martin

LSU

26

SA

Nikola Milutinov

Partizan

27

LAL

Larry Nance Jr.

Wyoming

28

BOS

R.J. Hunter

Georgia State

29

BKN

Chris McCullough

Syracuse

30

GSW

Kevon Looney

UCLA

 

Notable Second-Rounder: Willy Hernangomez (No. 35, PHI), Richaun Holmes (No. 37 PHI), Josh Richardson (No. 40, MIA)

 

Performers

 

Karl-Anthony Towns: 18.3 points, 10.4 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.7 blocks, 2.2 Turnovers (54.3 FG, 81.1 FT)

82 games played – 1st round value

 

Kristaps Porzingis: 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 triples, 1.9 blocks, 1.7 Turnovers (42.1 FG, 83.8 FT)

72 games played – 5th round value

 

Jahlil Okafor: 17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 2.3 Turnovers (50.8 FG, 68.6 FT)

53 games played – 9th round value

 

 

BUSTED

 

D’Angelo Russell: 13.2 points, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 triples, 2.5 Turnovers (41.0 FG, 73.7 FT)

80 games played

*D-Lo finally started playing like a former No. 2 overall pick this past season, but he never had much fantasy value while with the Lakers.

 

2016 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

PHI

Ben Simmons

LSU

2

LAL

Brandon Ingram

Duke

3

BOS

Jaylen Brown

California

4

PHX

Dragan Bender

Croatia

5

MIN

Kris Dunn

Providence

6

NO

Buddy Hield

Oklahoma

7

DEN

Jamal Murray

Kentucky

8

PHX

Marquese Chriss

Washington

9

TOR

Jakob Poeltl

Utah

10

MIL

Thon Maker

South Sudan

11

OKC

Domantas Sabonis

Gonzaga

12

ATL

Taurean Prince

Baylor

13

SAC

Georgies Papagiannis

Greece

14

CHI

Denzel Valentine

Michigan State

15

DEN

Juan Hernangomez

Spain

16

BOS

Guerschon Yabusele

France

17

MEM

Wade Baldwin

Vanderbilt

18

DET

Henry Ellenson

Marquette

19

DEN

Malik Beasley

Florida State

20

BKN

Caris LeVert

Michigan

21

ATL

DeAndre Bembry

St. Joseph’s

22

SAC

Malachi Richardson

Syracuse

23

BOS

Ante Zizic

Croatia

24

PHI

Timothe Luwawu

France

25

LAC

Brice Johnson

North Carolina

26

PHI

Furkan Korkmaz

Turkey

27

TOR

Pascal Siakam

New Mexico State

28

SAC

Skal Labissiere

Kentucky

29

SA

Dejounte Murray

Washington

30

GSW

Damian Jones

Vanderbilt

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Malcolm Brogdon (No. 36, MIL)

 

Performers

 

Malcolm Brogdon: 10.2 points, 4.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 3-pointer, 1.5 Turnovers (45.8 FG, 86.5 FT)

75 games played – 10th round value

 

BUSTED

 

Brandon Ingram: 9.4 points, 4.0 boards, 2.1 assists (40.2 FG, 62.1 FT)

79 games played

 

Jaylen Brown: 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds (45.4 FG, 68.5 FT)

78 games played

 

Delayed

 

Ben Simmons: 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.9 swats, 3.4 turnovers (54.5 FG, 56.0 FT)

81 games played – 5th round value

 

2017 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

PHI

Markelle Fultz

Washington

2

LAL

Lonzo Ball

UCLA

3

BOS

Jayson Tatum

Duke

4

PHO

Josh Jackson

Kansas

5

SAC

De’Aaron Fox

Kentucky

6

ORL

Jonathan Isaac

Florida State

7

CHI*

Lauri Markkanen

Arizona

8

NYK

Frank Ntilikina

France

9

DAL

Dennis Smith Jr.

N.C. State

10

POR

Zach Collins

Gonzaga

11

CHA

Malik Monk

Kentucky

12

DET

Luke Kennard

Duke

13

UTA*

Donovan Mitchell

Louisville

14

MIA

Bam Adebayo

Kentucky

15

SAC*

Justin Jackson

UNC

16

MIN*

Justin Patton

Creighton

17

MIL

D.J. Wilson

Michigan

18

IND

T.J. Leaf

UCLA

19

ATL

John Collins

Wake Forest

20

SAC*

Harry Giles

Duke

21

OKC

Terrance Furguson

Australia

22

BKN

Jarrett Allen

Texas

23

TOR

OG Anunoby

Indiana

24

DEN

Tyler Lydon

Syracuse

25

PHI

Anžejs Pasečņiks

Gran Canaria

26

POR

Caleb Swanigan

Purdue

27

LAL

Kyle Kuzma

Utah

28

UTA

Tony Bradley

UNC

29

SAS

Derrick White

Colorado

30

LAL*

Josh Hart

Villanova

 

Notable Second-Rounders: Jordan Bell (No. 38, GSW), Thomas Bryant (No. 42, UTA), Dillon Brooks (No. 45, MEM)

 

Performers

 

Lonzo Ball: 10.2 points, 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.7 3-pointer, 0.8 blocks, 2.6 turnovers (36.0 FG, 45.1 FT)

52 games played – 7th round value

 

Jayson Tatum: 13.9 points, 5.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 1.3 triples, 1.0 steal, 1.4 turnovers (47.5 FG, 82.6 FT)

80 games played – 6th round value

 

Donovan Mitchell: 20.5 points, 3.7 boards, 3.7 dimes, 2.4 treys, 1.5 steals, 2.7 turnovers (43.7 FG, 80.5 FT)

79 games played – 5th round value

 

John Collins: 10.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (57.6 FG, 71.5 FT)

74 games played – 8th round value

 

Second-half guys

 

Jarrett Allen: 9.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 1.6 turnovers (60.4 FG, 77.8 FT)

Final 24 games of the year – 8th round value

 

Josh Jackson: 18.3 points, 5.8 boards, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers (43.7 FG, 67.6 FT)

Final 22 games of the year – 10th round value if punting FT

 

Josh Hart: 14.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.1 triples, 1.0 steal, 1.3 turnovers (48.2 FG, 76.9 FT)

Final 13 games of the year – 5th round value

 

 

BUSTED

 

Markelle Fultz: 7.1 points, 3.1 boards, 3.8 assists (40.5 FG, 47.6 FT)

14 games played

 

De’Aaron Fox: 11.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.4 dimes, 1.0 steal, 2.4 turnovers (41.2 FG, 72.3 FT)

73 games played

 

Dennis Smith Jr.: 15.2 points, 3.8 boards, 5.2 assists, 1.5 triples, 1.0 steal, 2.8 turnovers (39.5 FG, 69.4 FT)

69 games played

*The numbers were semi-respectable, but the horrid percentages tanked his value, and you have to consider him a bust considering where he was going in drafts.

 

2018 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

PHO

Deandre Ayton

University of Arizona

2

SAC

Marvin Bagley

Duke

3

ATL

Luka Doncic

Slovenia

4

MEM

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Michigan State

5

DAL

Trae Young

University of Oklahoma

6

ORL

Mo Bamba

University of Texas at Austin

7

CHI

Wendell Carter Jr.

Duke

8

CLE

Collin Sexton

University of Alabama

9

NYK

Kevin Knox

University of Kentucky

10

PHI

Mikal Bridges

Villanova

11

CHO

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

University of Kentucky

12

LAC

Miles Bridges

Michigan State

13

LAC

Jerome Robinson

Boston College

14

DEN

Michael Porter Jr.

University of Missouri

15

WAS

Troy Brown

University of Oregon

16

PHO

Zhaire Smith

Texas Tech

17

MIL

Donte DiVincenzo

Villanova

18

SAS

Lonnie Walker

University of Miami

19

ATL

Kevin Huerter

University of Maryland

20

MIN

Josh Okogie

Georgia Institute of Technology

21

UTA

Grayson Allen

Duke

22

CHI

Chandler Hutchison

Boise State

23

IND

Aaron Holiday

UCLA

24

POR

Anfernee Simons

IMG Academy

25

LAL

Moritz Wagner

University of Michigan

26

PHI

Landry Shamet

Wichita State

27

BOS

Robert Williams

Texas A&M

28

GSW

Jacob Evans

University of Cincinnati

29

BKN

Dzanan Musa

Bosnia

30

ATL

Omari Spellman

Villanova

Notable Second-Rounders: Mitchell Robinson (No. 36, NYK)

Performers

Deandre Ayton: 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (58.5 FG, 74.6 FT)
71 games played – 3rd round value

 

Luka Doncic: 21.2 points, 2.3 triples, 7.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.4 turnovers (42.6 FG, 71.3 FT)
72 games played – 9th round value

 

Jaren Jackson Jr.: 13.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.9 triples, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (50.5 FG, 76.6 FT)
58 games – 8th round value

 

Trae Young: 19.1 points, 8.1 assists, 1.9 triples, 3.8 turnovers (41.8 FG, 82.9 FT)
81 games – 11th round value

 

Wendell Carter Jr.: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 turnovers (48.6 FG, 79.5 FT)
44 games – 10th round value

 

Mitchell Robinson: 7.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 0.5 turnovers (69.4 FG, 60.0 FT)
66 games – 4th round value

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 10.8 points, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.7 turnovers (47.4 FG, 79.9 FT)
82 games – 12th round value

 

Second-Half Guys

Marvin Bagley: 18.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.9 blocks, 1.5 turnovers (48.7 FG, 70.2 FT)
Final 19 games of the year – 10th round value

 

Mikal Bridges: 8.7 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 triple, 1.6 steals, 1.0 turnover (42.1 FG, 84.4 FT)
Final 23 games of the year – 9th round value

 

Miles Bridges: 9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 triples, 1.1 steals, 0.7 turnovers (49.0 FG, 83.3 FT)
Final 25 games of the year – 8th round value

 

Specialists

Kevin Huerter: 10.8 points, 2.0 triples, 3.0 assists, 1.1 turnovers (41.6 FG, 72.7 FT)
Final 21 games of the year

 

BUSTED

No one was a bust out of this class

 

So, what can we learn from all this data?

  • In general, rookies will struggle with their shooting percentage as well as turnovers
  • Big men tend to be slow starters
  • While there’s value to be had throughout the draft, it’s unlikely someone selected outside the top-10 will be an impact player his rookie year

 

Now, whether or not you can attach the bust label to a rookie from a fantasy perspective will be primarily based on where you need to take them on draft day. For example, burning an early-round pick on a first-year player is obviously riskier than shooting for the moon with a late-round flier, but that’s what you’re going to need to do if you want Zion Williamson.

 

By the way, I’m very confident that Williamson will become the third rookie to ever put up a first-round season, so I don’t mind reaching for him in Round 2 this year. He’s in a great system playing for Alvin Gentry and is sure to receive his fair share of perfect lobs from Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball. Williamson reeks of generation talent, as a nimble athlete with the body of a linebacker, and his commitment to both ends of the floor should result in across-the-board production. He’s probably the most hyped rookie we’ve seen since LeBron James, but by watching his highlights it's easy to see why.