Tom Brady isn’t beloved by everyone, but if you are bullish on the stock market you may want to put any harsh feelings aside for a day and root for 43-year-old ageless wonder “Tom Terrific” at Super Bowl LV.
The often bantered about Super Bowl Indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner has come from the NFC, but when an AFC wins it falls. Of course this is ridiculous in principle as stocks move up and down based on expectations for the future earnings of their underlying companies (or thoughts spread on Reddit threads). But as LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick points out, the stats don’t lie on the predictive powers of the Super Bowl Indicator.
Detrick’s research shows that the S&P 500 has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 54 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won. Naturally the stock market has done quite well these past two seasons in which the AFC has won (Kansas City Chief last year, and Brady’s then New England Patriots in 2019). But the longer-term data is fascinating.
From 1967 to 2020, the S&P 500 has gained 10.2% in the year when the NFC has won and only 7.1% after an AFC win. An NFC winner has produced a positive year for the S&P 500 79% of the time, LPL’s data uncovers. The S&P 500 has been up only 65% when the winner came from the AFC.
So when it comes to this year’s big game, the data indicates a win by Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) would be better off for stocks than a win by Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs (AFC).
Detrick still isn’t rooting for the invincible man that is Tom Brady.
“There have been 54 Super Bowl winners, yet only 20 teams account for those wins,” said Detrick. “And wouldn’t you know it, the best stock market performance happens after the Bucs win the big game? But I don’t care, I’m still not rooting for Tom Brady.”
Brady will be appearing in his 10th Super Bowl and going for his seventh win.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Find the latest in business and finance news here.
What’s hot from Sozzi:
Melinda Gates: we are giving $250 million more to the COVID-19 relief effort
Olympics great Michael Phelps: the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t been all smiles for me
Watch Yahoo Finance’s live programming on Verizon FIOS channel 604, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Roku, Samsung TV, Pluto TV, and YouTube. Online catch Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, and reddit.
