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Monday, September 26, 2022
You are likely not doing enough to understand the unfolding disaster that is the global stock market and economic backdrop.
Chances are you have been beaten over the head by a financial advisor to "think long-term" and to not check stock prices daily on the nifty Yahoo Finance app. At the same time, this is a strange moment to be an investor — and the current situation demands your attention.
Have you ever seen interest rates ascend so rapidly as they are now because of what the Federal Reserve is doing? Look what it's doing to the housing market, as reported by Yahoo Finance's Ronda Lee.
Have you ever heard about a "soft" or "hard" economic landing so much before they became the buzziest finance terms of 2022? Fears of a hard landing are roiling energy markets, reports Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre.
Ever see a company like FedEx miss on earnings estimates by more than $2 and then say it will slash almost $3 billion in costs just like that? I had choice things to say on this one last week on Yahoo Finance Live.
Ever see shares of ridiculously strong tech companies such as Nvidia (down 57% YTD), AMD (down 52% YTD) and Amazon (down 32% YTD) get pulverized primarily by the outlook for interest rates?
Unless you are at least 60 years old, I venture the answer is No.
In any case, this moment in time calls for the all hands on deck approach.
To that end, here are a few things that I am watching this week:
Currency moves: Check out this fabulous analysis by our markets master Jared Blikre on the wild moves we are seeing in currencies that is impacting markets and global multinationals. "While American tourists abroad may celebrate entire countries going 'on sale,' all sorts of investment vehicles — 401ks, institutional portfolios, corporate earnings, crypto holdings — are directly or indirectly feeling pain from of these gut-wrenching currency moves," Jared correctly notes. Currency moves were also an under-the-radar topic at Salesforce's Dreamforce conference I went to last week — here is what Salesforce's co-CEO Bret Taylor told me. Want to brush up on your understanding of currencies? Here is a list of good books.
The tradeable stock market bottom: Stock prices don't go down forever, despite the vibe to the contrary that has enveloped markets. I liked what BTIG's technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky had to say in a new note to clients:
"The good news is that in the near-term, we are much closer to a tradable bottom than we were at 3,900. Despite bearish sentiment and positioning much of this year, it's the transactional indicators that have been lacking for true capitulation. Several of those are at or near levels that suggest a bounce should be forming soon, especially as the seasonals become a tailwind in mid-October. As far as a level, while there will be some talk of a double bottom at the June lows, an undercut that gets closer to the 200- week moving average (3,585) makes sense to us."
I am watching if this plays out in the wake of last week's post-Fed meeting drubbing. If it is taking shape, I think it will be led by bounces in beat-up household name stocks such as the aforementioned AMD, Nvidia, and Amazon.
I encourage you to bookmark the "Trending Tickers" page on Yahoo Finance, an incredibly valuable tool to sniff out bottoms and tops in markets.
Krinsky added this useful chart showing that historically, the fourth quarter is good for markets as investors get in the holiday mood.
Nike's earnings: Expectations on Nike's earnings report due out on Thursday have come way down in recent weeks amid 1) warnings from big companies like FedEx; 2) terrible late August earnings from retailers; 3) volatile currencies that are likely hammering Nike's sales and profits overseas. Nike's stock has come down, too — off 12% in the past month alone. Despite the much lower hurdle rate for the report, it's hard to believe that in this climate Nike's earnings will be embraced by investors. The company is likely to warn on currencies, inventory levels and demand out of China. Look for the company to cut its fiscal year currency neutral revenue guidance and for this to pressure other retail stocks. Morgan Stanley's long-time retail analyst Kimberly Greenberger appears to agree.
"While the long-term opportunity remains compelling, macroeconomic deterioration and limited visibility makes current discounted valuation fair, in our view," Greenberger wrote in a note to clients. "And until visibility improves, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage."
What to Watch Today
8:30 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, August (0.27 during prior month)
10:30 a.m. ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (-12.0 expected, -12.9 during prior month)
No notable reports scheduled for release.