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Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for MGP (MGPI) Stock

Zacks Equity Research
·2 mins read

MGP (MGPI) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given a notable revision in the company's earnings estimates. While the stock has been gaining lately, the trend might continue since its earnings outlook is still improving.

The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this producer of distillery and ingredients products used by the packaged goods industry, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight.

The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.

For MGP, there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising earnings estimates, which has helped push consensus estimates considerably higher for the next quarter and full year.

The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions

The earnings estimate of $0.50 per share for the current quarter represents a change of +8.7% from the number reported a year ago.

Over the last 30 days, one estimate has moved higher for MGP compared to no negative revisions. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 6.38%.

Current-Year Estimate Revisions

For the full year, the earnings estimate of $2.43 per share represents a change of +7.05% from the year-ago number.

There has been an encouraging trend in estimate revisions for the current year as well. Over the past month, one estimate has moved up for MGP versus no negative revisions. This has pushed the consensus estimate 19.7% higher.

Favorable Zacks Rank

The promising estimate revisions have helped MGP earn a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.

Bottom Line

While strong estimate revisions for MGP have attracted decent investments and pushed the stock 37.8% higher over the past four weeks, further upside may still be left in the stock. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away.


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Zacks Investment Research