Ukraine – the interim government meets EU commissioners today. Fed speak – Lockhart and Lacker. Note: Throughout the next couple of weeks we can expect a lot of central bank speakers from the ECB to the US – pushing out their message.
Barry (06:54) US Retail numbers out in 35 minutes could determine whether the initial move today is up or down.
Snippets: Mid month is upon us …
I think people may be overlooking the impact of potential ECB action - as mentioned by Brian yesterday it has brought down Euro and US yields, and may hold off a big selloff in equities – George … right George, there’s talk of something being done in China too… I’m not clear any of that is good for US equities – Barry.
Part 3: I don’t need to understand it, but here it is — The stars, planets, water and all that astro … Wednesday’s RTH’s has big aspect, and full moon w/ saturn is going to exaggerate it. I have a it as a turn date and its negative on the face of it BUT there are astro factors that could cause market to fuel itself to kill itself so to speak.. Danger Will Robinson … Its a top and drop setup for this week … and we have got the first half done.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Goldman sees Q1 GDP tracking -0.7%, but sees Q2 tracking +3.7% and cuts US Q2 GDP forecast to 3.5% from 3.9% and Barclays sees Q1 GDP tracking -0.6%. JPM: we are leaving our US Q2 GDP forecast at 3.0%.
From our good friend Cyrus – I just ran a quick study here are the constraints:
1) new 50 day high 2) volume below 30d ave 3) since 1965 bullish for 6m and 12m but mildly bearish for shorter timeframes. this matches with your intuition … a pop up to new highs leads to a period of consolidation and pullback …
Long term interest? william_blount everyone not wanting to go home long on weekends due to Ukraine – snooze fest. we either do 12936-1968 with 2014 outlier by ANNABETH 7/7 or we top below 1921.55 cash on big arse 3 and the diagonal at MTS being presented since MARCH 21 is the deal. *Derrick_Caravan (09:59) wb hoy 2014 in 2014?
*william_blount (09:59) yes – if the outlier is reached – the most chock full of price points on the chart are 1897-1904 AND 1961-1968. DERRICK — let me be real clear: odds favor big arse 3 SEALING BELOW 2014 here to 1921.55 or 1961-68. big arse 4 will be down 10% + big arse 5 then gets the 2014 and as KATHY knows, possible 2214. parting shot: lest anyone think I am a perma bull, I aint — I think this country has gone frigging batty ass crazy embracing marxism without most people who are marxist even knowing they are marxist thanks to our education system and our media. *Posted y’day; Sweet spot the next few months – Eco tailwinds now – cyrus.
Today started with 197k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1892.25 – 1896.75. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1893.40 – 1882.00 before settling at 1892.80, up 19.4 handles. Roger (07:30) Retail sales miss at 0.1% vs 0.5% expected
Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 2 handles higher to 1894.50 – 1895.00 trading an early low 1892.70 before grinding up to new all-time high of 1898.50 and quietly fading back. Chance (08:32) looking for a rotational day – leaning more to buying pullbacks off the 1886.75-1889.25 zone and 82-84 below that. Scaling longs 1899.5-1901.5 – above there 1906.75-1908.75 comes into play where I expect buying to be exhausted. O/N range very tight – so anticipating that type of trade for RTH’s. william_blount (08:33) 1891.5, 98.5, 1901.5, 1908.5, 1915.5 = le SPOTS. william_blount (08:43) gimme my 12 cents – [SPX] 1900
Trading range in the first 15mins 1892.70 / 1896 before extending the gains to 1897 in the opening half hour … Roger (09:01) Business inventories inline at 0.4%, SALES UP 1% and INVENTORIES ROSE 0.5% IN FEBRUARY REVISED FROM 0.4% GAIN. Chance (09:14) TICK been holding below zero as this chops higher … tells me sellers not very successful in trying to sell this. could get squeezed up the 1899.5 – 1901.5. Tyra (09:16) ty, Chance, re the tick… had not thought about it that way until you said … william_blount (09:20) bears better show UP. Barry (09:26) I’m not going to read too much into a quarter percent drop in [IWM] after yesterday’s big move but if it starts to accelerate beyond here it’ll have my attention. Chance (09:45) good volume just came out 1898.25. 1898.50 marked the new all-time high … Sam (10:05) this run up. one of the longest i have seen in recent memory with pit deviation. has been riding right against it for 1.3 million contracts currently it will have to touch 1888 to relieve that pressure but that number is rising. Chance (10:19) negative TICKs not being bought up – looking for 1886.75-89.25 zone to provide some support on first test. The slow sideways to modestly lower trade set in …
Keeping an eye on – without touching or breathing in anything … Sam (12:45) second and 3rd case of MERS reported in florida – Orlando health care workers. could eventually spook the market – seen before. william_blount (13:28) bulls need to trade 1895.75 — bears need to kill 1891.5. There was a little profit-taking following the all-time highs as the S&P future traded in a tight 1893 – 1895.50 area throughout the midday.mts2 (14:12) That large in the money option trader is rolling some 7k more – the market makers are selling the ES to hedge their new positions – helping to keep a cap on the upside for now.Following the quiet midday sideways to lower price action, the MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a small $110M to the buy side before expanding to $280M going into the cash close. The futures traded 1893.70 on the cash close before settling at 1894.30, up 1.5 handles on volume of 1.07M e-minis, while the [VIX] was down fractionally. Sam (14:54) nothing much accomplished either way today, bulls or bears. if anything a 3 uu on this leg with a possible 4 down that can get as low as 1885 – bulls in charge – and if u see 85 and it holds it aint bearish … and my good friend mr blount would agree if this is a flat 4 and this is all she has watch out above.
Posted last Friday: Folks tend to focus only on the AAII Sentiment bull/bear spread, but I also keep an eye on neutral sentiment – think of it as a measure of the “dry powder” that will eventually go back into the market. Over the course of the last nine weeks, neutral sentiment has risen from a z-score of +0.1 (basically the mean), to +1.3 in the current week. For perspective, this week’s reading of 43% is the highest since February 2003. Implications of high neutral sentiment are bullish with above-average gains and positive expected forward performance across 1-mo, 3-mo, 6-mo and 12-mo timeframes – Oh, and dont forget … The Pitbull’s thurs/Fri low before opex – Cyrus.