Taliban mulls flooding the West with heroin to shore up Afghan economy
The Taliban is ascendant. Ashraf Ghani and his Government have fled Afghanistan.
But as hardline Islamists form a government for the first time in two decades, they also face a looming economic crisis and the risk of a sudden halt to the aid payments which have sustained the country for years.
The opium fields, which have long been a crucial source of cash for the Taliban, could now become a vital replacement for those international funds - sparking a new surge in heroin across the West.
Back in 2001, the invading allies were aware of Afghanistan’s status as a nascent narco-state.
“The biggest drugs hoard in the world is in Afghanistan, controlled by the Taliban. 90pc of the heroin on British streets originates in Afghanistan,” Tony Blair told the Labour Party conference just weeks after the terror attacks of 11 September 2001.
Eliminating poppies was high on the agenda for the coalition soldiers - but ironically, the low ebb for production came in 2001, before the invasion, when the Taliban itself cracked down on farms in the hope this would give it leverage with foreign governments.
UN studies indicate that the area used to cultivate the crop dropped more than 90pc, from 82,000 hectares (202,600 acres) in 2000 to 8,000 in 2001.
It then rebounded almost immediately despite Western efforts, and was up to 224,000 hectares by 2020 - almost three times the area covered in 2000.
Jonathan Goodhand, a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies, says Taliban rule could now boost the illicit trade further.
“If there is a measure of stability, there is potential for a return to the situation we saw in the mid-90s when the Taliban took power last time - they were supported by the Afghan trading mafia who were concerned by how warlordism was affecting trade,” he says.
Poppy farming areas are key for Taliban support, with the crop more valuable than legal products and easier to transport and hide, he says.
“The poppy economy is superbly adapted to a high-risk environment,” says Goodhand, who was an aid worker in the region in the 80s and 90s.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, at the Brookings Institution, last year told the House of Lords that between 20pc and 40pc of the Taliban’s funding comes from opium.
Now it is back in charge, she says the group must walk a tightrope between keeping supporters happy by allowing them to grow poppies, and satisfying international donors that it will crack down on heroin.
“The last time I had conversations with senior Taliban leaders, several months ago, they hinted their intentions to ban the opium economy. I am not sure that is believable, because the opium poppies will be such a critical source of income. I expect those statements indicate they want to present themselves as a responsible Government actor that wants international recognition,” she says, noting Russia and Iran particularly want a drugs crackdown.
“If they start issuing bans on poppies this will have significant blowback for them, including in crucial areas like Helmand and Kandahar. International bargaining will be constrained by local reactions.”
Financially speaking, aid is even more important than poppies. Last year a coalition of donors pledged to give Afghanistan $3.3bn (£2.4bn) in development aid for 2021, with similar amounts expected to follow in subsequent years, which comes on top of what was usually several billion dollars-worth of US-led military and security aid.
The British Government has yet to explain what it will do with those funds now, although Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, has said cash will be held back at present "pending reforms". Providing cash to the Taliban is unpalatable, but demand for humanitarian aid may surge.
A sharp fall in support could precipitate an economic crunch after years in which aid has contributed to growth, not least if hundreds of thousands of soldiers and police paid by the West become jobless.
Between 2003 and 2012, Afghan GDP surged by an average of more than 9pc per year, according to the International Monetary Fund - though since then it has slipped to less than 2pc annually, including a drop of 5pc last year when the pandemic struck.
“The economy was so weak last year that any recovery in activity this year will show a rebound,” says Fung Siu, principle economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“They are still set for this. Why? Primarily because there is going to be a peaceful transition. Because a long, drawn-out civil war has been avoided, the outlook for the economy is not that bad.”
Much depends on whether the Taliban takes control smoothly - which is still not guaranteed - as well as aid.
Ajmal Ahmady, the Governor of the Bank of Afghanistan, tweeted about the lack of dollars available, with the currency plunging then recovering again as uncertainty reigns.
Despite the Taliban’s awareness of its public image, there are already signs emerging of a return to the oppression of the past, which will hit Western aid.
One success story of the past 20 years was improved rights for women, particularly returning to education. Even this left female participation in the workforce at just 22pc, and there are already reports of women being ordered to leave universities and office jobs.
Meanwhile, autocracies closer to Afghanistan have different priorities.
“China is interested in stability, and is interested in connecting the Belt and Road Initiative [of infrastructure projects] through Afghanistan,” says Goodhand.
“Afghanistan has major mineral deposits and rare earths which China is interested in.
“The Western players are not the only game in town. The idea that they can place conditionalities on the Taliban is hubristic.”
As the world adjusts to the Taliban's return, the battle to prevent a flood of heroin onto Western streets is just beginning.
