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Tariffs Survive, China Relaxes Rules, Stagflation Risk: Eco Day

Michael Heath

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Wednesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

Existing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election, people familiar with the matter saidChina is loosening its urban residency restrictions in an effort to encourage people to shift from the countryside to support economic growth. Beijing is meantime under increasing pressure to reduce industrial subsidies after the U.S., Europe and Japan agreed to push for stronger WTO rulesJust two years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was helming an economy expanding 8%, spurring optimism India was on a path to become a major growth driver. Now, stagflation loomsThe euro-area economy is starting to regain its footing, two ECB officials said, suggesting monetary policy will stay on hold for now. Peter Praet, the ECB’s former chief economist, warned President Christine Lagarde not to take her eye off the main goal during her planned strategy reviewA key question out of the U.S.-China trade deal is how the latter’s commitment to buy $200 billion of American goods and services will impact other countries’ access to the world’s biggest economies, writes Bryce Baschuk in Terms of TradeChina’s export juggernaut last year showed it can be nimble too, quickly diversifying into new markets to cushion the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff onslaughtThe Bank of England’s dovish shift in recent days has already rippled through markets, and now economists are starting to react tooBloomberg Economics’ U.S. recession probability model shows receding chances of a downturn within the next 12 months, yet worries remain, writes Eliza Winger. Meanwhile, Kansas Fed chief Esther George, one of the central bank’s most consistently hawkish officials, said she’s comfortable keeping interest rates on hold “for now” amid a positive outlook for 2020.The Trump administration plans to restrict the news media’s ability to prepare advance stories on market-moving economic dataClimate stress tests of the French financial sector will be published in aggregate and anonymously, the central bank said, echoing a design the Bank of England has suggested. Meantime, Germany launched an 86 billion euro ($95 billion) plan to modernize, expand and electrify its railway systemSwiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan is finding it’s hard to revert to normal monetary policy without risking an unwanted appreciation of the franc

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