Tecan Group AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
It's been a good week for Tecan Group AG (VTX:TECN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.3% to CHF366. Revenues were CHF1.1b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CHF10.30 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Tecan Group
Following last week's earnings report, Tecan Group's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CHF1.07b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 3.2% to CHF10.00 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF1.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF10.08 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CHF393, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tecan Group analyst has a price target of CHF450 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF311. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Tecan Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 0.004% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Tecan Group.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tecan Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Tecan Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Tecan Group that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
