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Should You Be Tempted To Buy Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSX:AAV) Because Of Its PE Ratio?

Lee Kay

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSX:AAV) trades with a trailing P/E of 25.1x, which is lower than the industry average of 24.1x. While AAV might seem like an attractive stock to buy, it is important to understand the assumptions behind the P/E ratio before you make any investment decisions. Today, I will deconstruct the P/E ratio and highlight what you need to be careful of when using the P/E ratio. View our latest analysis for Advantage Oil & Gas

Demystifying the P/E ratio

TSX:AAV PE PEG Gauge Sep 22nd 17

P/E is often used for relative valuation since earnings power is a chief driver of investment value. By comparing a stock’s price per share to its earnings per share, we are able to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

Formula

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for AAV

Price per share = 8.12

Earnings per share = 0.324

∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = 8.12 ÷ 0.324 = 25.1x

The P/E ratio itself doesn’t tell you a lot; however, it becomes very insightful when you compare it with other similar companies. We preferably want to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar features to AAV, such as capital structure and profitability. A common peer group is companies that exist in the same industry, which is what I use below. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different.

Since AAV's P/E of 25.1x is higher than its industry peers (24.1x), it means that investors are paying more than they should for each dollar of AAV's earnings. As such, our analysis shows that AAV represents an over-priced stock.

Assumptions to be aware of

Before you jump to the conclusion that AAV represents the perfect buying opportunity, it is important to realise that our conclusion rests on two important assertions. The first is that our “similar companies” are actually similar to AAV. If the companies aren’t similar, the difference in P/E might be a result of other factors. For example, if you are inadvertently comparing lower risk firms with AAV, then AAV’s P/E would naturally be lower than its peers, since investors would value those with lower risk with a higher price. The other possibility is if you were accidentally comparing higher growth firms with AAV. In this case, AAV’s P/E would be lower since investors would also reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing AAV to are fairly valued by the market. If this assumption is violated, AAV's P/E may be lower than its peers because its peers are actually overvalued by investors.

TSX:AAV Future Profit Sep 22nd 17

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? You may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock as a shareholder, so its current undervaluation could signal a good buying opportunity to increase your exposure to AAV. Now that you understand the ins and outs of the PE metric, you should know to bear in mind its limitations before you make an investment decision.

Are you a potential investor? If AAV has been on your watch list for a while, it is best you also consider its intrinsic valuation. Looking at PE on its own will not give you the full picture of the stock as an investment, so I suggest you should also look at other relative valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA or PEG.

PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. Take a look at our most recent infographic report on Advantage Oil & Gas for a more in-depth analysis of the stock to help you make a well-informed investment decision. Since we know a limitation of PE is it doesn't properly account for growth, you can use our free platform to see my list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.


To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.