Investors in Tenable Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:TENB) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.0% to close at US$26.86 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues of US$92m beat expectations by a respectable 3.5%, although losses per share increased. Tenable Holdings lost US$0.18, which was 25% more than what analysts had included in their models. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts are forecasting for next year.
After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Tenable Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$434.7m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a substantial 31% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to US$0.79. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$434.7m and US$0.94 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$34.73, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tenable Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$44.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
It can also be useful to step back and take a broader view of how analyst forecasts compare to Tenable Holdings's performance in recent years. We can infer from the latest estimates that analysts are expecting a continuation of Tenable Holdings's historical trends, as next year's forecast 31% revenue growth is roughly in line with 32% annual revenue growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that Tenable Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Tenable Holdings going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Tenable Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.