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Tenet (THC) Down 2.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Zacks Equity Research

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Tenet Healthcare (THC). Shares have lost about 2.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tenet due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tenet Healthcare Q2 Earnings Top Estimates & Rise Y/Y

Tenet Healthcare delivered second-quarter 2019 adjusted net income of 56 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 27.3%. This upside is primarily driven by the Hospital & Other segment, volume growth in hospital portfolio and earnings growth at USPI. Moreover, the bottom line was up 14.3% year over year in the quarter under review.

Quarterly Operational Update

Net operating revenues came in at $4.5 billion, up 1.2% year over year. Additionally, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.7% on the back of contributions made by the Hospital & Other segment. Tenet Healthcare’s same-hospital exchange admissions were up 3 % year over year. Same-hospital exchange outpatient visits were down 3.2% year over year.

Quarterly Segment Details

Hospital & Other


Net operating revenues in the Hospital Operations and Other segment came in at $3.8 billion, up 2.5% year over year. This upside is mainly attributable to revenue growth on a same-hospital basis. However, the same was partly offset by divestitures. On same-hospital basis, patient revenues were $3.54 billion, up 5.7% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) were $347 million, up 0.6% year over year.

Ambulatory Segment

The Ambulatory segment generated net operating revenues of $524 million, down 1.3% year over year due to the divestiture of Aspen Healthcare, the company’s former business in the U.K. Additionally, the segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $207 million, up 8.4% year over year.

Conifer Segment

Conifer’s revenues decreased 8% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $355 million. This was mainly due to the company’s client attrition following certain divestitures.

The segment reported $103 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter under review, up 13.2% year over year.

Financial Position

As of Jun 30, 2019, Tenet Healthcare had cash and cash equivalents of $249 million, down 39.4% from the number at 2018 end.

The company exited the second quarter with $14.3 billion of long-term debt, down 2.3% from the count at 2018 end.

Net cash provided by operating activities for the first half of 2019 stands at $294 million, down 36.2% year over year.

2019 Outlook

Adjusted earnings per share are projected between $2.08 and $2.59.

Tenet Healthcare expects revenues in the range of $18-$18.4 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is estimated between $2.650 billion and $2.750 billion.

Tenet Healthcare anticipates adjusted free cash flow of $600-$800 million. While net cash provided by operating activities is predicted between $1.07 billion and $1.375 billion.

Q319 Guidance

Following second-quarter results, the company provided an outlook for the third quarter. Tenet Healthcare now anticipates revenues in the range of $4.3-$4.6 billion for the current quarter. The company now forecasts adjusted EBITDA between $600 million and $650 million. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations are likely to vary between 23 cents and 48 cents.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 30.23% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Tenet has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Tenet has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.



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