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Tesla stock tanks on delivery whiff, JPMorgan note

Tesla stock is picking right up where it left off in 2022: Lacking juice.

Shares of the EV maker fell more than 12% on Tuesday, the biggest one-day drop in more than two years. The stock at one point hit its lowest level since August 2020, with investors reacting to a lackluster fourth-quarter delivery figure released on New Year's Day. Tesla was the top-trending ticker on the Yahoo Finance platform.

Tesla saw fourth-quarter deliveries rise 18% sequentially to 405,000, missing consensus forecasts of 418,000. The figure brought Tesla's 2022 total deliveries to 1.3 million units, up 40% year over year but below the company's guidance for 50%.

The delivery miss only fueled further concern on the Street on the demand for Tesla's vehicles — a key factor in sending shares spiraling 65% lower in 2022.

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman cut his profit estimates and price target on Tesla in the wake of the soft results.

Brinkman sees Tesla missing fourth-quarter earnings estimates ($1.19) when it reports later in January. For 2023, Brinkman is now modeling for earnings of $4.60 a share, down from $4.84 previously.

KING OF PRUSSIA, PA - DECEMBER 11:  The Tesla store is closed at the King of Prussia Mall on December 11, 2022 in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania. The country's largest retail shopping space, the King of Prussia Mall, a 2.7 million square feet shopping destination with more than 400 stores, is owned by Simon Property Group. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)
The Tesla store is closed at the King of Prussia Mall on December 11, 2022 in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)

The analyst's price target moved down to $125 from $150. He continues to rate the stock underweight (sell equivalent).

"Beyond the impact to near-term financials, another implication we see from 4Q’s combination of softer than consensus volume and pricing is the impact on the stock’s growth narrative which has allowed many investors to believe the company is likely to grow unit volume at upwards of a ~+50% CAGR [compound annual growth rate] until such time as it is the world’s largest automaker (management outlook is for “Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries”)," Brinkman explained. "We have questioned the company’s ability to sustain this rate of growth."

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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