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Tesla will need more than a deliveries beat heading into Q3, says analyst

All eyes will be on Tesla (TSLA) next week when it reports its third-quarter delivery numbers, and Wall Street analysts are putting in guesses as to whether the electric carmaker will deliver.

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy’s 84,000 estimate is below the 96,000 consensus, though said he wouldn’t be surprised if volume matched or exceeded expectations. But other factors could be of more importance, he noted.

“Even if it meets consensus on deliveries, the question into Q3 EPS will be around margins, how the stock reacts with likely the first negative year-over-year revenue growth quarter since 2012,” Levy wrote in a Sept. 26 note to investors.

Levy has been bearish on Tesla — and initiated coverage of the electric automaker earlier this year at Underperform with a $189 price target. He reiterated that figure as well as his rating in the note.

Ljubljana, Slovenia - January 23, 2018 - Charging electric Tesla model S car with black charging electric cable plugged in. Recharging modern expensive electric vehicle in a parking lot.

Tesla shares were flat on Thursday, but rallied-mid session after Electrek reported that CEO Elon Musk told employees in an email the company “has a shot” at delivering 100,000 cars this quarter, which would be a new record, according to a leaked email it obtained.

The stock also got a boost following a bullish call from China Renaissance, which issued Telsa a Buy rating and $324 price target. Meanwhile, the Chinese finance firm recommended rival NIO (NIO) at Hold, with a $2 price target.

September 9, 2019 San Jose / CA / USA - NIO corporate headquarters in Silicon Valley; Nio is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in designing and developing electric autonomous vehicles

Tesla’s Chinese competitor is down nearly 70% since its debut at the New York Stock Exchange in September 2018. Shares have been under pressure this week after reporting its fourth earnings report as a public company. Investors were disappointed to learn that its Q2 losses widened and sales fell.

Tesla is expected to report quarterly results on October 23.

Pamela Granda is a producer on Yahoo Finance’s closing bell show, The Final Round. Follow her on Twitter.

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