Things Look Grim For Clarus Corporation (NASDAQ:CLAR) After Today's Downgrade
One thing we could say about the analysts on Clarus Corporation (NASDAQ:CLAR) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the latest downgrade, Clarus' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2023 to be US$457m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to plummet 39% to US$0.42 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$514m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
See our latest analysis for Clarus
The consensus price target fell 49% to US$16.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Clarus, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Clarus' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 0.8% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Clarus is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Clarus.
So things certainly aren't looking great, and you should also know that we've spotted some potential warning signs with Clarus, including recent substantial insider selling. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 2 other warning signs we've identified.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here