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We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
So should ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
How Long Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at June 2019, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals had cash of US$382m and no debt. In the last year, its cash burn was US$186m. That means it had a cash runway of about 2.0 years as of June 2019. Importantly, analysts think that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals will reach cashflow breakeven in 2 years. So there's a very good chance it won't need more cash, when you consider the burn rate will be reducing in that period. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
How Well Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Growing?
Some investors might find it troubling that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is actually increasing its cash burn, which is up 6.5% in the last year. The good news is that operating revenue increased by 43% in the last year, indicating that the business is gaining some traction. We think it is growing rather well, upon reflection. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Easily Can ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Raise Cash?
While ACADIA Pharmaceuticals seems to be in a fairly good position, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash to fund growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
Since it has a market capitalisation of US$5.5b, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's US$186m in cash burn equates to about 3.4% of its market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.
How Risky Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's Cash Burn Situation?
It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is burning through its cash. For example, we think its revenue growth suggests that the company is on a good path. While its increasing cash burn wasn't great, the other factors mentioned in this article more than make up for weakness on that measure. One real positive is that analysts are forecasting that the company will reach breakeven. Taking all the factors in this report into account, we're not at all worried about its cash burn, as the business appears well capitalized to spend as needs be. Notably, our data indicates that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals insiders have been trading the shares. You can discover if they are buyers or sellers by clicking on this link.
Of course ACADIA Pharmaceuticals may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.