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We Think Antisense Therapeutics (ASX:ANP) Needs To Drive Business Growth Carefully

Simply Wall St

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. By way of example, Antisense Therapeutics (ASX:ANP) has seen its share price rise 147% over the last year, delighting many shareholders. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

Given its strong share price performance, we think it's worthwhile for Antisense Therapeutics shareholders to consider whether its cash burn is concerning. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

See our latest analysis for Antisense Therapeutics

When Might Antisense Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn. In June 2019, Antisense Therapeutics had AU$2.9m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was AU$2.9m. That means it had a cash runway of around 12 months as of June 2019. To be frank, this kind of short runway puts us on edge, as it indicates the company must reduce its cash burn significantly, or else raise cash imminently. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

ASX:ANP Historical Debt, November 30th 2019

How Is Antisense Therapeutics's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

In our view, Antisense Therapeutics doesn't yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just AU$14k in the last twelve months. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by 27%, which suggests that management are increasing investment in future growth, but not too quickly. However, the company's true cash runway will therefore be shorter than suggested above, if spending continues to increase. Admittedly, we're a bit cautious of Antisense Therapeutics due to its lack of significant operating revenues. We prefer most of the stocks on this list of stocks that analysts expect to grow.

How Hard Would It Be For Antisense Therapeutics To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Antisense Therapeutics shareholders should already be thinking about how easy it might be for it to raise further cash in the future. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash to drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Antisense Therapeutics has a market capitalisation of AU$33m and burnt through AU$2.9m last year, which is 8.8% of the company's market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

Is Antisense Therapeutics's Cash Burn A Worry?

On this analysis of Antisense Therapeutics's cash burn, we think its cash burn relative to its market cap was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. For us, it's always important to consider risks around cash burn rates. But investors should look at a whole range of factors when researching a new stock. For example, it could be interesting to see how much the Antisense Therapeutics CEO receives in total remuneration.

If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.