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MGP Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGPI), is not the largest company out there, but it led the NASDAQGS gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s take a look at MGP Ingredients’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is MGP Ingredients still cheap?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 3.83% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy MGP Ingredients today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $80.69, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because MGP Ingredients’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will MGP Ingredients generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by a double-digit 13% in the upcoming year, the short-term outlook is positive for MGP Ingredients. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in MGPI’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on MGPI, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about MGP Ingredients as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with MGP Ingredients, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in MGP Ingredients, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.