We Think SRF (NSE:SRF) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, SRF Limited (NSE:SRF) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for SRF
What Is SRF's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2019 SRF had ₹37.3b of debt, an increase on ₹31.4b, over one year. However, it also had ₹2.92b in cash, and so its net debt is ₹34.4b.
How Strong Is SRF's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that SRF had liabilities of ₹32.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹25.6b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹2.92b as well as receivables valued at ₹15.4b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹39.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since SRF has a market capitalization of ₹154.0b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
SRF's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.5 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 6.0 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Importantly, SRF grew its EBIT by 63% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if SRF can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, SRF saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
SRF's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about SRF's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in SRF, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
