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Third Time's Not So Charming for Gold

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

[More from Minyanville.com: Barrick Gold Corporation Bombarded by Call Buyers ]

Today's Highlight: Gold's third consecutive double-digit plunge, on a Friday, all but invalidates the corrective dip scenario.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Room to probe above the 84.20 target to 84.45 was exploited Friday by gapping up, extending to fresh highs and then ranging narrowly. Holding 83.95 as support would allow the rally to next target 85.30.

[More from Minyanville.com: Gold's Double-Digit Plunge Finally Meets Correction's Target ]

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's gap down extended to fresh lows and ranged sideways through the afternoon. Bounces holding 1.2910 would allow the decline to extend to its next target at 1.2745.

[More from Minyanville.com: Gold's Recent Pause May Be the Calm Before the Next Storm ]

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Another double-digit plunge, and on a Friday, seriously undermines whether the recent drop has been only a temporary corrective pullback. The gap back down to Thursday's open was filled overnight, but reactions up were shallow and temporary before reversing to fresh lows testing 1357.50. Closing solidly above 1383.00 could still reverse the decline, which is meanwhile targeting 1333.00 and new lows.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's gap down to Wednesday's 22.42 low eventually extended to fresh lows at 22.18, extending toward the next lower target at 21.55-21.75, so long as 22.75 isn't recovered.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's extension to a new multi-session high testing 145-16 while also triggering the 144-24 buy signal required the rally to extend immediately Friday if valid. It did not. The session slid back toward prior lows at testing 143-28. Not exiting Monday morning in rally mode would all but require extending through the 143-13 sell signal to put 142-18 into play.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Immediately testing 96.00 at Friday's gap up triggered a reaction back down into negative territory. Recovering back into positive territory at 96.00 still did not trigger the buy signal that would put into play 98.10.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's reaction down toward 3.90 came from Wednesday's unimpressive tests of the 4.05 buy signal. Friday's recovery back to 4.05 was impressive. Closing above it still targets 4.16, whose recovery would launch a new upleg.parameters remain valid.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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