NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
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Numbers Have to Come Down
Posted at 6:43 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Oct. 3
Well, at least it is at last sinking in. Numbers have to come down. That's what happens in these situations. You want to outrun the companies. Get ahead of the cuts.
That's why the shutdown has been so Cinderella so far. The analysts haven't been willing to slash numbers.
I think United Technologies comments are making them think twice. They've not been willing to downgrade because if you downgrade that says "OK, I am betting it's a longer shutdown." Then you come in on Monday and the shutdown is over and you look like a real doofus.
But as the rhetoric gets worse and each side does nothing but badmouth the other side, you have to start thinking, what does October look like for my company?
I asked Dominion , maybe the best, most-forward-thinking utility out there with lots of business not far from the D.C. area, whether business could be hurt from the shutdown and they were distinctly wait-and-see about it. They weren't dismissive of the question.
To me, this is a moment when it is worth the gamble of betting that numbers are too high, especially after the rally we have had.
No, I am not saying "cut numbers on Celgene because of the FDA and the possibility of a slower review time." I am saying that it would be perfectly reasonable to cut numbers in any tech stock that does a lot of business with the federal government because I have to believe that the longer the shutdown, the lower the numbers.
At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
These Kind of Buyers Bug Me
Posted at 6:58 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Oct. 2
I used to get so angry at the buyers in moments like these. I was never long enough on a comeback move like we had at the end of yesterday or the one that occurred in the last few minutes of tonight's session.
I had shorts on every day and I would marvel at the lack of discipline other shorts had before the closing bell and, believe me, many of those buyers were closing out shorts. The longs tend not to be that injudicious.
Why does it happen? Because shorts totally fear the midnight deal. They always think that someone's talking to someone else in these crises, whether it be with Iraq in 1990 or again on the eve of the war in the new millennium or with the debt deal in 2011 -- remember the Grand Bargain -- or with the fiscal cliff last year. They always have conviction when there's no reason to have it.
Yes, these buyers always made the business so hard.
The only time I was ever one of these buyers was in 1990 when I was bringing in my banking shorts, not because I expected anything good to happen over the weekend, but because I didn't want to give up my gains. Maybe some of these buyers are like that. But it doesn't make me like them.
I have always felt that the key to this kind of market is wait until you know the pain is extreme in Washington because only EXTREME pain allows for a deal. Everyone digs in their heels at a certain point and we are JUST NOW getting to that point.
We need some concrete sign that someone outside the beltway cares. Hasn't happened yet.
So, sure, maybe tomorrow the secret talks come out of the closet. Maybe tomorrow the Democrats and Republicans agree that for the good of the country they will set aside their differences and compromise.
But frankly, right now, doesn't that totally commonsensical bit of hope seem entirely fanciful?
Well, not to the buyers.
And they were the only ones who mattered going into the bell.
- short stocks and
- biotech rivals