- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But not every stock you buy will perform as well as the overall market. For example, the National Retail Properties, Inc. (NYSE:NNN), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 10% trails the market return. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 3.8% in three years.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
National Retail Properties was able to grow EPS by 19% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly higher than the 10% increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about National Retail Properties as it was before. This could be an opportunity.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that National Retail Properties has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, National Retail Properties' TSR for the last 1 year was 15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
National Retail Properties shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 6% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that National Retail Properties is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
We will like National Retail Properties better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.