Cassius Mining Limited (ASX:CMD) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last month. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 87%. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.
We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
With just AU$8,440 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Cassius Mining to have proven its business plan. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, investors may be hoping that Cassius Mining finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. The is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Cassius Mining has already given some investors a taste of the bitter losses that high risk investing can cause.
When it reported in December 2018 Cassius Mining had minimal net cash consider its expenditure: just AU$748k to be specific. So if it hasn't remedied the situation already, it will almost certainly have to raise more capital soon. That probably explains why the share price is down 49% per year, over 3 years. You can see in the image below, how Cassius Mining's cash and debt levels have changed over time (click to see the values).
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 11% in the last year, Cassius Mining shareholders lost 68%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3.5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
We will like Cassius Mining better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.