Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), which is in the machinery business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGM over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Blue Bird’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is Blue Bird still cheap?
According to my relative valuation model, the stock seems to be currently fairly priced. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 19.85x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 22.56x, which means if you buy Blue Bird today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Blue Bird should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Blue Bird’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Blue Bird generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 89% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Blue Bird. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? BLBD’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at BLBD? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the true value?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on BLBD, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for BLBD, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Blue Bird. You can find everything you need to know about Blue Bird in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Blue Bird, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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