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Is It Time To Consider Buying Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972)?

Andrew Edmonds

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Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Swire Properties’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Swire Properties

Is Swire Properties still cheap?

According to my relative valuation model, the stock seems to be currently fairly priced. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 4.58x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 5.85x, which means if you buy Swire Properties today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe Swire Properties should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond where it’s currently trading. In addition to this, it seems like Swire Properties’s share price is quite stable, which could mean there may be less chances to buy low in the future now that it’s fairly valued. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.

What kind of growth will Swire Properties generate?

SEHK:1972 Past and Future Earnings, February 25th 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of Swire Properties, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, 1972 appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on 1972, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 1972 for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on 1972 should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Swire Properties. You can find everything you need to know about Swire Properties in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Swire Properties, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.