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Time to fade this 'Trump trade that never really was,' technician says

Annie Pei

One group of stocks that could have been expected to rally off of Donald Trump's election wasn't ever a Trump trade in the first place, says one top technician.

Industrials have rallied more than 13 percent since the election off of expectations that Trump would implement a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan to restore the country's bridges and roads, leading many to consider the sector a "Trump trade," that is to say a group of stocks expected to rally under the Trump administration.

But Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro says that a closer look at the charts reveals that industrials are a "Trump trade that never really was."

Friday on CNBC's "Options Action," Worth pulled up a chart that showed that the post-election industrials rally was actually very short-lived. In fact, Worth says that starting even a few days after the election, industrials were already underperforming the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

"There is no Trump trade here, it was literally four sessions," said Worth.

Even looking longer term, Worth points out that the rally in industrial stocks for the past few months appears to be slowing and is already dipping from previous highs.

"All industrials after the 'industrial recession' that companies speak of have gotten back to relative performance almost perfectly to their prior high and stopped dead cold," Worth said.

"I think you want to fade the XLI," he added. "You want to be underweight industrials at this point."

The XLI (NYSE Arca: XLI), the industrials-tracking ETF, regained some of its losses from the previous week and is now up 6 percent year to date.



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