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This Time, Natural Gas Bulls Mean Business

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Could natural gas be any more obvious that it doesn't intend to break through recent lows that have been tested, retested, and retested again? Yes, by actually rallying. Not extending sharply higher Tuesday would be suspicious.

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Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Overnight strength into Monday's open nevertheless reversed to range narrowly sideways, still absorbing last week's volatility.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Overnight weakness into Monday's open nevertheless recovered to range narrowly sideways, still absorbing last week's volatility.

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Last week's gaps up were producing another gap up the following day, compensating for not extending higher intraday. But Monday's immediate recovery from Friday's depressed session barely registered any volatility intraday. None of which is a sell signal, and only further suggesting that the rally's sponsorship is waning. A failed intraday probe of fresh highs may still be needed before another downleg can begin.

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Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Monday's gap down extended momentarily to test 19.55 before recovering back into positive territory. But the recovery never converted into resuming the rally, which still undermines the rally's momentum.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Monday's initial weakness wasn't insignificant, but recovering it back into positive territory (on the retail sales miss) wasn't impressive, as the balance of the session ranged narrowly under 135-00 resistance.

Crude Oil
Aug Contract CL; (USO)
Sunday night's attack on Friday's low reacted back up Monday to retest the rally's 106.35 target. The 103.30 pullback objective wasn't touched, so rallying prematurely would not be as reliable, but could still extend to fresh highs targeting 110.65-110.75.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (UNG), (UNL)
Yet another dip into the 3.55-3.60 support range held. And produced an obvious reaction back up. Monday's support test was of a new character, both dipping and recovering sharply intraday, testing the 3.73 buy signal.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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