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TimkenSteel (TMST) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

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Have you been paying attention to shares of TimkenSteel (TMST)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 46.1% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $23.47 in the previous session. TimkenSteel has gained 38.7% since the start of the year compared to the 9.5% move for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the 12.3% return for the Zacks Steel - Producers industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on February 24, 2022, TimkenSteel reported EPS of $0.8 versus consensus estimate of $0.6.

For the current fiscal year, TimkenSteel is expected to post earnings of $3.55 per share on $1.38 billion in revenues. This represents a 10.59% change in EPS on a 7.27% change in revenues.

Valuation Metrics

TimkenSteel may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

TimkenSteel has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 6.5X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is a premium to the peer industry average of 4.5X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 4.5X versus its peer group's average of 4.2X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, TimkenSteel currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if TimkenSteel passes the test. Thus, it seems as though TimkenSteel shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

How Does TMST Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of TMST have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? One industry peer that looks good is Nucor Corporation (NUE). NUE has a Zacks Rank of # 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value Score of B, a Growth Score of A, and a Momentum Score of A.

Earnings were strong last quarter. Nucor Corporation beat our consensus estimate by 1.92%, and for the current fiscal year, NUE is expected to post earnings of $21.59 per share on revenue of $35.7 billion.

Shares of Nucor Corporation have gained 11.6% over the past month, and currently trade at a forward P/E of 6.25X and a P/CF of 5.01X.

The Steel - Producers industry is in the top 13% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for TMST and NUE, even beyond their own solid fundamental situation.

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