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California and New Jersey just banned gas car sales after 2035…
The China Society of Automotive Engineers recently said clean energy vehicle sales will jump to 50% of new car sales in China by that same year…
Germany and France have both ramped up electric vehicle subsidies in 2020…
India, meanwhile, is busy forging a path to 30% electric vehicle penetration by 2030.
Do I need to go on?
The global stage is set for enormous disruption across the transportation market throughout the 2020s, wherein increasing political pressure coupled with falling costs and improving technology will result in every vehicle on the road inevitably getting electrified.
Right now, the market is hyper-obsessed with this disruption in the passenger car market. Look no further than Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock – up 420% this year – or Nio Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stock – up 975% this year – for proof of this.
But passenger cars are just one piece of the transportation pie. What about school busses? Delivery vans? Airport shuttles?
Millions of those vehicles are sold every year, too… and yes, they will get electrified just as much as passenger cars.
But Wall Street is sleeping on these “other” transportation markets in the EV revolution – meaning that it is in these tangential auto markets that you could find the next Tesla or the next NIO.
Today, we will tell you about an emerging, hypergrowth electric bus maker that appears positioned to turn into the Tesla of busses and shuttles – and, if that happens, this tiny stock could soar more than 40X…
Leading the Electrification Wave in Local Commercial Transportation
Every year, about 10 million medium-to-heavy duty commercial busses, trucks and vans are sold to fleet operators all across the world.
Very, very few of them are electric today.
According to Bloomberg NEF, just about 3,600 electric medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles (CVs) and busses were sold in the U.S. in 2020.
But… thanks to growing legislative pressure to cut carbon emissions, falling costs of electric batteries, expanding charging infrastructure and improving specs of electric CVs… Bloomberg NEF sees that number rising by nearly 7,000% to over 250,000 vehicles by 2030.
That’s enormous growth.
So, don’t sleep on the electric CV market. It may not be as “sexy” as the passenger car market. But the electrification wave across commercial transportation will be one of the most exciting hypergrowth markets of the 2020s.
Leading this hypergrowth megatrend will be a small, relatively obscure electric bus maker by the name of GreenPower Motor (NASDAQ:GP).
GreenPower makes three purpose-built electric CVs: an electric shuttle bus dubbed the EV Star, an electric transit bus, and an electric school bus.
The CVs themselves have great specs.
The EV Star is big (sits up to 25 people), powerful (has a 118 kWh battery pack), and capable (can drive up to 150 miles on a single charge). The transit bus is also big (the biggest model can seat up to 100 people), powerful (has a near 500 kWh battery pack), and capable (up to 200 miles of driving range).
The school bus – dubbed BEAST (love the name; it’s short for Battery Electric Automotive School Transportation) – is much of the same: big, powerful, and capable.
Indeed, all of GreenPower’s CVs have been rigorously tested and approved by the Federal Transit Administration.
So… these vehicles are no joke. They aren’t Nikola trucks that are being filmed rolling down a hill. GreenPower’s purpose-built electric CVs are the real deal.
GreenPower started delivering these vehicles back in late 2017.
Since then, the company has signed contracts with multiple commercial customers like UCLA, San Diego Airport Parking Co, GreenCommuter, Sacramento Regional Transit, and more – while scaling vehicle deliveries from near zero in 2017, to 13 in 2018, to 68 in 2019.
Perhaps more importantly, pretty much all of those university, airport, and transit authority customers have made substantial re-orders with GreenPower – while the company has also signed up many, many more new customers, as well.
At the same time, the company has made huge investments over the past 12 months to dramatically increase production capacity.
GreenPower is now signing 100-plus unit contracts – meaning delivery volumes are on track to keep doubling ever year towards several hundred units by 2021/22.
This is just the beginning.
Recall from earlier… the electric truck and bus market in the U.S. is expected to grow by nearly 7,000% to ~250,000 units by 2030.
GreenPower presently controls about 3.5% of that market, based on 2020 projected delivery volumes.
As an emerging leader in this market, GreenPower could easily nab 10% market share by 2030 – implying 25,000 deliveries in 2030. At an average price of $200,000, that implies 2030 revenue potential of $5 billion.
Given the company’s current 30% gross margin profile, I think that easily flows into $500 million in net profits – and a 20X multiple on that implies a potential $10 BILLION valuation in the long run.
GreenPower Motor is worth less than $200 million today.
So… there is a pathway for this nascent hypergrowth stock to rise by more than 40X over the next decade, and that’s certainly enough upside to warrant putting GreenPower Motor stock on your radar today.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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