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How far south? $ES_F 1753 or 1741

Marlin Cobb

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image thumb223 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Wrong way, Zweig.  That was quite a bullish move yesterday and pushed our Zweig up to almost 50% again.

Economic News:

Economic Calendar is off-line.  I hope to have a new solution starting on Monday.

Starting at 8:30 am today watch for Personal spending and income.  9:42am is the effective reveal of the Chicago PMI and at 9:55am is the Michigan sentiment.  Take care during those times.

Quote of the Day:
It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native criminal class except Congress
–Mark Twain

Comments and Levels for the Front(S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short:  1781
Long: 1753 or 1741

image thumb224 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

We talked about heading south, but we don’t want to do it via a gap, we want an organic falling apart.

We now have two lower targets, our 1753 that we set yesterday and 1741 is the extension for the head and shoulders play on the bear flag action.   Either way, if we hit them we want to see real capitulation selling.  Tweets like, “Fed is in trouble now” or better yet “this is only the beginning”.

Words like Crash, Recession, Carnage are good ones, too.   To keep it all in perspective, 1753 is just 5% back from the highs.

Look on up/dn volume for 9:1 type down volume.

Now, if we could just get a reprieve from the Fed Governors today and see some dovish talk that could stem the flow.  Down isn’t guaranteed, and on the upside it is not marked on our roadmap but we would be looking for 1781 to hold.

Trade safe and have a great Weekend!

On the MiM

wlEmoticon smilewithtongueout3 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

image thumb225 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Think of the MiM as a tug of war.  There are sellers lined up wanting to get out of positions on one end of the rope and buyers on the other end.  If there are 2 on one side and 2 on the other side we are pretty split and the rope ain’t moving.  If there are 1000 on one side and 1000 on the other side, again we are evenly split.

Sometimes you just have to ignore the MiM dollar amount if you can’t get alignment.  You want to be one with the MiM when all the traders and institutions and funds are lined up on one side of the rope and doing serious business.

We never got above 60%, let alone 66%,  on the symbol count and although there were some “Big guys making big buys” on the buy side, for me it didn’t justify an edge I want to trade the odds.

The trades below are the ones that hit my trading criteria and fairly accurately reflect what could have been taken home.  Trading is a game of patience and stalking and knowing when to hit and when to wait patiently.  There is an old African proverb that says “It is a hungry tiger that pounces on the first elk”.  (That isn’t a true proverb btw.. but you get my point.)

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
1/3/2013 Short 3.23 5.31 4.71
1/9/2013* Long 1.58 -0.26 -0.67
1/13/2013 Short 2.65 0.63 -0.10
1/15/2013 Long -1.41 0.24 0.38
1/27/2013 Short 10.52 11.10 7.32
Total 16.52 17.02 10.64

* – NFP Day before and day of.
** – New Year’s Eve / End Of Year

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM

MiMlogo 1501 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image thumb226 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

So again we will stand back on the TLT today.  If we do get a capitulation action type day we don’t want to be in the way of the money flow.

>>> You can follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<

Breadth Charts in Full:

Zweig Breadth Thrust

image thumb227 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Come on 40… we need that in the next few days.

Cumulative Volume Index:

image thumb228 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Hanging on that trend line, but still some room for down and a scare.

Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image thumb229 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Tracking 1:1 so no news here.

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image thumb230 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

We want one more good push down.  Yesterday wasn’t it.


Short Term Trender -  McClellan Summation Index:

image thumb231 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741


Long Term Trender -  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):

image thumb232 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741


Parting Shot: 

image thumb233 How far south? $ES F 1753 or 1741

Building our NSA app.

We talked last week about our social feed app, previously know as Argus, that we are working on once again.

Our goal is to seek out new sources of good information.  There is so much chatter and noise on the feeds and we want not to just publish the best messages, but the names and sources also so you can add them to your own social experience – circle, bubble, tribe… whatever the latest social buzzword is today.

We have the feed basically running, but it is running a bit too fast.  We did work to remove duplicate information and our next step is to implement the scoring and filtering to slow the feed down.  The idea is to do “deep scoring” over the weekend nights when computer resources can be spun up for cheap.

We have currently processed 234,088 messages from 51,342 different writers and the top scorers of course are the quality sources like Reuters and BBC and CNN. What we haven’t added yet is the “tradability” or “market information” piece of the score.

Every message received is scanned for symbols and values, values are matched up as close as possible to a symbol and then a real-time value for the symbol is also stored.   Best trades or levels we will attempt to dig out each weekend in review and score those writers.

We also have a breaking news feature that looks for world events, attempting to locate the ground zero of the event and start monitoring messages tagged with that location.  It is all very NSA and hopefully it will all be completed in the next month for you.

You can follow along on the RedlionTrader.com home page (not much to see now) or http://redliontrader.com/redtrack.

As always we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading -
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

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