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TODAY'S CHARTS: Don't get blindsided by Tesla's shiny new Model 3

Today 30 lucky drivers are getting the most-anticipated car of the year.

At 11:45 p.m. ET, Elon Musk will hand over the keys to the Model 3, Tesla’s (TSLA) first mass-market car. But there’s good reason not to get too caught up in the hype. Let’s take a look under the hood.

The stock has been on a wild ride over the past month, taking a beating after some skeptical analyst notes, news of disappointing deliveries, and the Model S failing to achieve a top crash rating.

Despite those setbacks, the stock is up by almost 33% over the past 6 months, in part because expectations are so high for the new Model 3.

Earlier this month, Elon Musk tweeted some guidance for Model 3 production, writing there would be 30 finished in July, 100 in August, around 1,500 in September and then 20,000 in December.


But this doesn’t quite live up to what Musk was telling investors last year when he said that Tesla “would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of [2017].”

Even though he warned the numbers were ambitious and that they were designed to push workers as hard as possible, his expectations were way off. His latest tweets imply that production in the second half of 2017 will miss his estimates last year by two thirds.

It’s also been a year since Tesla has provided any updates on the number of deposits for the Model 3. How many orders are there? We don’t know.

Furthermore, Tesla’s track record for deliveries has been less than stellar. The company produced more vehicles than it sold for six quarters, and sales were flat for the past three. Despite this, Tesla is struggling to meet delivery goals on certain models.

All of this makes one wonder whether or not Elon Musk will make good on his promises.

Tesla bulls are betting on the long term. But it’s important to keep expectations in check and not to get blindsided by today’s shiny new object.

For more on Tesla, check out The Final Round starting at 3:55 p.m. ET, right here on Yahoo Finance.