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Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (NYSE:ALEX)?

Simply Wall St

Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (NYSE:ALEX), which is in the reits business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$25.15 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$22.31. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Alexander & Baldwin's current trading price of US$22.69 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Alexander & Baldwin’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out our latest analysis for Alexander & Baldwin

What is Alexander & Baldwin worth?

Alexander & Baldwin appears to be overvalued by 37% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$22.69 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of $16.53. This means that the opportunity to buy Alexander & Baldwin at a good price has disappeared! Another thing to keep in mind is that Alexander & Baldwin’s share price is quite stable relative to the market, as indicated by its low beta. This means that if you believe the current share price should move towards its intrinsic value over time, a low beta could suggest it is not likely to reach that level anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range again.

What does the future of Alexander & Baldwin look like?

NYSE:ALEX Past and Future Earnings, November 9th 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Alexander & Baldwin, it is expected to deliver a highly negative revenue growth over the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? If you believe ALEX should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ALEX for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Alexander & Baldwin. You can find everything you need to know about Alexander & Baldwin in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Alexander & Baldwin, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.