U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    4,228.48
    -55.26 (-1.29%)
     
  • Dow 30

    33,706.74
    -292.30 (-0.86%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    12,705.21
    -260.13 (-2.01%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    1,957.35
    -43.38 (-2.17%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    89.91
    -0.59 (-0.65%)
     
  • Gold

    1,760.30
    -10.90 (-0.62%)
     
  • Silver

    18.97
    -0.50 (-2.56%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.0039
    -0.0053 (-0.52%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    2.9890
    +0.1090 (+3.78%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.1823
    -0.0109 (-0.92%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    136.9300
    +1.0680 (+0.79%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    21,309.55
    -598.60 (-2.73%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    504.88
    -36.72 (-6.78%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,550.37
    +8.52 (+0.11%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    28,930.33
    -11.81 (-0.04%)
     

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG)?

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·3 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the ASX, rising to highs of AU$7.11 and falling to the lows of AU$5.45. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Origin Energy's current trading price of AU$5.94 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Origin Energy’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Origin Energy

What Is Origin Energy Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 17% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Origin Energy today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is A$7.16, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Origin Energy’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Origin Energy look like?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a relatively muted revenue growth of 5.0% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Origin Energy, at least in the short term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in ORG’s future outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ORG, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Origin Energy you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Origin Energy, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here