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Too Much of a Good Thing? (Capital Market Research) (Weekly Market Outlook)

·55 min read
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WEEKLY

MARKET OUTLOOK

FEBRUARY 18, 2021





CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Moody’s Analytics markets and distributes all Moody’s Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moody’s Capital Markets Research, Inc . is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation. Moody’s

Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.

Too Much of a Good Thing?


Credit Markets Review and Outlook

by John Lonski

Too Much of a Good Thing?

»

FULL STORY PAGE 2

The Week Ahead

We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US and Asia/Pacific regions.

»

FULL STORY PAGE 7

The Long View

Full updated stories and

key credit market metrics:

First-quarter 2021 may

show the fewest net U.S.

high-yield downgrades

since 2010’s third quarter.

»

FULL STORY PAGE 11

Ratings Round-Up

U.S. Downgrades Comprise Half of Changes, but Nearly 90% of Affected Debt

»

FULL STORY PAGE 14

Market Data

Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.

»

FULL STORY PAGE 16

Moody’s Capital Markets Research

recent publications

Links to commentaries on: Rising prices, stimulus, core profits, yield spreads, virus, Congress ,

misery, issuance boom, default rate, volatility, credit quality, bond yields, record savings rates,

demographic change, high tech, complacency, Fed intervention, speculation, risk, credit stress,

optimism, corporate credit, leverage, VIX.

»

FULL STORY PAGE 21

Credit

Spreads

Investment Grade: Year-end 2021’s average investment grade

bond spread may exceed its recent 101 basis points. High Yield:

A composite high-yield spread may top its recent 350 bp by

year-end 2021.

Defaults

US HY default rate: According to Moody's Investors Service,

the U.S. ' trailing 12-month high-yield default rate jumped

from January 2020’s 4.3% to January 2021’s 8.3% and may

average 5.5% for 2021’s second quarter.

Issuance

For 2019’s

offerings of US$-denominated corporate bonds,

IG bond issuance rose 2.6% to $1.309 trillion , while high-

yield bond issuance surged by 58% to $440 billion .

In 2020, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance soared

54% for IG to a record $2.012 trillion , while high-yield

advanced 30% to a record-high $570 billion .

For 2021, US$-denominated corporate bond offerings may

decline 26% (to $1.487 trillion ) for IG and drop 7% (to $529

billion) for high-yield, where both forecasts top their

respective annual averages for the five years ended 2020 of

$1.494 trillion for IG and $410 billion for high-yield.

Moody’s

Analytics Research

Weekly M

arke

t Outlook Contributors:

Moody's Analytics/ New York :

John Lonski
Chief Capital Markets Economist

1.212.553 .7144

john.lonski@moodys.com


Yukyung Choi
Quantitative Research

Moody's Analytics/ Asia-Pacific :

Shahana Mukherjee
Economist

Moody's Analytics/ Europe :

Ross Cioffi
Economist

Moody’s Analytics/ U.S. :

Mark Zandi

Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

Steven Shields

Economist

Editor

Reid Kanaley

Click here for

Moody’s Credit

Outlook

, our sister publication

containing Moody’s rating

agency analysis of recent news

events, summaries of recent

rating changes, and summaries

of recent research.

Contact:

help@economy.com

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

Credit Markets

Review and Outlook

Credit Markets Review and Outlook

By John Lonski , Chief Capital Markets Economist, Moody’s Capital Markets Research

Too Much of a Good Thing?

Markets now fret over the possibility that massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus may damage

future financial conditions and economic performance. An exceptionally strong reading on January’s retail

sales and the continued upbeat tone of manufacturing hint of a livelier than anticipated first quarter for the

U.S. economy. Nevertheless, February’s deep freeze that has afflicted much of the U.S. warns of a temporary

reversal of January’s positive readings on business activity.

In response to January's much greater than expected reading on retail sales, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow

methodology raised its forecast of first quarter 2021's annualized sequential growth rate for real consumer

spending from 1.5% to 7.7%. Prior to the retail sales’ stunner, consensus forecasts of professional

prognosticators had first-quarter 2021’s real consumer spending growing by 2.5% annualized from the prior

quarter, on balance.

February 17’s latest batch of January data that included a 0.9% monthly advance by industrial production

also prompted the GDPNow forecasting model to upwardly revise its baseline estimates for real business

investment spending (from a derived 13.4% to 14.1%), real residential investment spending (from 15.4% to

17.5%), and inventory accumulation. The broad array of upward revisions caused the GDPNow model to lift

its baseline estimate of first-quarter 2021's annualized sequential real GDP growth from an already fast

4.5% (prior to February 17) to an unsustainably rapid 9.5%.

Though the latter early estimate will likely prove to be on the high side, the improved outlook for first-

quarter 2021’s U.S. economy is very much consistent with at least a 7% annual increase by 2021’s nominal

GDP. What will probably be the fastest annual advance by U.S. nominal GDP since 1989’s 7.7% has

important implications for the benchmark interest rates that help to govern financial markets and business

activity.

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Hardly Ever Quickly Approaches Nominal GDP Growth

Prior to February’s price uprisings and knowledge of January’s retail sales vigor, consensus estimates for

2021’s average 10-year Treasury yield were in a range of 1.2% to 1.3%. Now even a 1.5% annual average for

the 10-year Treasury yield seems too low in the context of 7% nominal GDP growth. A 2% average for

calendar-year 2021 would still leave the 10-year Treasury yield a deep 5.0 percentage points under 7%

nominal GDP growth. The only calendar showing a discount of the average 10-year Treasury yield to

nominal GDP growth of 5.0 percentage points or deeper was 1955’s 6.1 percentage point shortfall.

In terms of moving 12-month averages, the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.2 points under nominal GDP

growth for the span-ended March 1979 and 4.8 points under nominal GDP growth for the span-ended

September 1973. The annual rate of core PCE price inflation would accelerate from the 4.1% of 1973’s third

quarter to the 8.7% of 1974’s third quarter and from the 6.8% of 1979’s first quarter to the 8.9% of 1980’s

first quarter.

The rule of thumb among financial market professionals had been that the 10-year Treasury yield should

approximate the year-over-year increase in nominal GDP. However, during 1954-2020, the average 10-year

Treasury yield of 5.7% trailed nominal GDP’s 6.2% average annual increase by 0.5 percentage points.

Nevertheless, the gap has diverged considerably from the +0.5-percentage point average for extended

periods. For example, during 1954-1979, the 10-year Treasury yield’s 5.4% average was 2.3 percentage

points under the 7.7% average annualized rate of nominal GDP growth. However, by 1980-1999, the 10-

year Treasury yield’s 8.6% annual average was 1.9 percentage points above nominal GDP’s 6.7% average

annualized increase.

Some might find it surprising that despite drops by the average annualized rates of growth from the 1970s’

10.0% for nominal GDP and 6.0% for the core PCE price index to the 1980s’ 8.0% for nominal GDP and

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

Credit Markets

Review and Outlook

5.1% for the core PCE price index, the average 10-year Treasury yield rose from the 1970s’ 7.5% to the

1980s’ 10.6%. The upshifting by the 10-year Treasury yield from the 1970s to the 1980s helped to bring

about an extended downshifting by the annual rate of core PCE price index inflation that persists to this very

day.

Breakneck Commodity Price Inflation Does Not Promise Rapid Core Consumer Price Inflation

Industrial commodity prices continue to soar higher. On February 17, Moody’s Analytics industrial metals

price index advanced to its highest close since July 2011. The base metals price index’s recent 40% year-to-

year surge consisted of yearly advances of 25% for aluminum, 47% for copper, 10% for lead, 74% for tin,

32% for zinc, and 45% for nickel. Among other industrial materials are the recent yearly price increases of

109% for steel, 89% for iron ore, 121% for lumber futures, and 17% for crude oil.

Rapid industrial commodity price inflation hardly assures a recurring climb by the underlying rate of price

inflation, or core consumer price inflation. However, the ongoing and unfinished ascent by the price of crude

oil now favors a faster-than-anticipated rate of PCE price index inflation for calendar-year 2021.

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

Jun-00 Jan-02 Aug-03 Mar-05 Oct-06 May-08 Dec-09 Jul-11

Feb-13 Sep-14 Apr-16 Nov-17 Jun-19 Jan-21

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

Crude Oil Price: WTI, $/bbl (L)

Industrial Metals Price Index (R)

Figure 2: Recent Steep Ascents by Prices of Industrial Metals and Oil Did Not Trigger Destabilizing

Climbs by Consumer Price Inflation

sources: LME, Wall Street Journal, Moody's Analytics

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Credit Markets

Review and Outlook

In terms of the yearly percent changes of moving three-month averages since 1991,the average annual rates

of PCE price index inflation with and without food and energy prices were 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, for

those 27 observations showing a year-over-year advance by the industrial materials price index exceeding

50%. According to the same serial comparisons, for the 35 observations showing a yearly surge by the price

of WTI crude oil in excess of 50%, the average annual rates of PCE price index inflation with and without

food and energy prices were 2.6% and 1.8%, respectively.

Given the recent and prospective double-digit percent increases of industrial commodity prices, recent

consensus forecasts of a 2.0% annual rise by 2021’s PCE price index are likely prove to be somewhat low.

Nonetheless, the relationship between PCE price index inflation and rapid industrial commodity price

growth of the past 30 years suggests that the recent and forthcoming lift-off by industrial commodity prices

will not trigger a destabilizing ascent by the underlying rate of consumer price inflation.

Inflation Fears May Now Be Overblown

Regardless of consumer price inflation’s containment since the 1980s, investors now fret over a potentially

disruptive acceleration of core consumer price inflation once the full force of giant doses of fiscal and

monetary stimulus arrive amid much-reduced COVID-19 risks. For now, the Fed can downplay faster

commodity price growth because price inflation has yet to follow a trajectory that risks destabilizing

business activity.

However, rising price inflation will become intolerable once it outruns personal income, squeezes profit

margins, prompts layoffs in adversely affected industries, and triggers a steep ascent by interest rates that

slashes spending on credit sensitive goods, especially housing. Moreover, policymakers will take note if

uncertainty surrounding inflation deters capital spending because businesses have difficulty estimating

future costs for labor and other inputs. Finally, monetary policy will become less accommodative if inflation

expectations rise to a level that impairs the global competitiveness of domestic production and, thereby,

helps to put unwanted downward pressure on the dollar exchange rate.

Basically, policymakers can supply stimulus only up to the point where perceived inflation risks become so

great that additional stimulus measures only worsen financial and economic performance.

For now, fears of the type of accelerating price inflation experienced during the 1970s appear overdone. The

simple aging of the populations and workforces of advanced economies will make it difficult for consumer

spending to grow rapidly enough to sustain a rising rate of price inflation. Moreover, U.S. businesses and

labor faced considerably less global competition during the 1970s. For example, giant emerging market

economies possessing highly skilled workforces and advanced technologies (such as India and China ) were

largely absent from cross-border business activity. In view of today’s much more globalized U.S. economy,

an uncontrolled depreciation of the dollar exchange rate could trigger a disruptive climb by U.S. price

inflation.

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The Week Ahead










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The Week Ahead – U.S., Europe, Asia-Pacific

THE U.S.

By Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

Willing to Chance a Booming Economy

After languishing for several months, there are early indications that economic activity is picking up.
Prospects for a stronger economy remain tentative, but there are increasingly compelling reasons to be

optimistic.

COVID-19

vaccinations are ramping up, while infections and hospitalizations are declining,

and herd immunity looks more likely by summer. The economy is benefiting from the $900 billion
relief package passed into law at the end of last year, and up to $1.9 trillion in added support proposed

by President Biden’s American Rescue Plan appears headed to passage in the next few weeks. There is
also lots of pent-up demand for various activities curtailed by households during the pandemic, and

middle- and especially high-income households have plenty of financial firepower to unleash that

demand.

The case for a much stronger, even booming economy, is so good that some have already begun to
worry it will ignite undesirably high inflation. That concern is much too premature. The economy is a

long way from full employment, particularly for the hardest-pressed lower-income households. Besides,
the Federal Reserve and other central banks have struggled for well more than a decade to get inflation

out of the doldrums. A more serious immediate threat is surging asset values, which have risen to the
point that markets appear overvalued and at risk of turning speculative. Asset prices are thus vulnerable

to sharp declines, which under certain circumstances could be a problem for the economy.


The economy went more or less sideways at the end of last year but appears to have picked up since

the start of this year. This is the story told by a recent surge in business-to-business spending as

measured by Cortera, a firm that tracks close to $1.7 trillion in B2B spending, and was

acquired by

Moody’s last week

. Based on data collected through the end of January, B2B spending is up a robust

12.3% over the past year. For context, in the wake of the business shutdowns last May, year-over-year

spending was down 13.6%.

Big companies with more than 500 employees are doing much better, as they have throughout the
pandemic, with sales up 18.5% in January. Sales at small companies with fewer than 500 employees

are up only 3.9%. Some 60% of three-digit NAICs industries are enjoying year-over-year sales gains,
with the strongest growth at online retailers, home improvement and electronics stores, nursing care

facilities, trucking and homebuilders. Sales remain way off in the accommodation and restaurant

industries, at performing arts venues and museums, and in the airline and oil and gas industries. The

B2B spending data augur well for the raft of government economic statistics coming out this week for
January, including retail sales, industrial production and housing starts. It will take another month or
two for it to show up in better labor market data, including a revival in job growth and a decline in

unemployment insurance claims.

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The Week Ahead










CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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Behind this optimism are improving prospects that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, and that we

are on track to achieve herd immunity this summer. It isn’t difficult to

connect the dots

between the

virulence of the pandemic and the economy’s performance, and infections and hospitalizations are

definitively

on the decline

. Confirmed infections have fallen below 100,000 per day, down from well

over 250,000 at the peak in early January, and new COVID-19 hospitalizations have fallen below

10,000 per day from a peak of more than 15,000. Vaccinations are also picking up, with daily
inoculations averaging 1.6 million, and 35 million Americans, more than 10% of the population,

receiving at least their first shot. If these trends in confirmed infections and vaccinations continue, the

U.S. will achieve herd immunity—with three-fourths of the population having been vaccinated or

infected and thus presumably with some immunity to the virus—around July 4. This is our baseline
expectation, although there is plenty of both upside and downside risk to the baseline; vaccinations are

quickly trending higher, but new strains of the virus—more resistant to the vaccine—are becoming
more prevalent.

Prospects for substantially more fiscal support also augur well for growth this year going into next. Our

baseline assumes lawmakers will pass two fiscal packages this year that combined will include
approximately $2 trillion in deficit-financed fiscal support. The first package will include just over $1
trillion for additional fiscal relief to the hardest-pressed until the pandemic begins winding down this

summer, and the second will include not quite $1 trillion for infrastructure and climate-change related
spending to help the economy get back to full employment after the pandemic. There would also be
substantially more spending on various social initiatives as laid out in Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.

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The Week Ahead










CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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But, this spending would be paid for by tax hikes on corporations and well-to-do individuals. Given this

fiscal outlook, the economy would return to full employment—an unemployment rate of close to 4%

and a labor force participation rate of 62.5%—by early 2023.


However, it appears increasingly likely that President Biden and the Democratically controlled Congress

will push through a much larger fiscal relief package in the next few weeks, one closer to the $1.9

trillion

American Rescue Plan

the president proposed. They are moving quickly, using the reconciliation

process, meaning that if Democrats remain united, they won’t need Republican votes to pass major
fiscal policy legislation. Centrist Democratic senators may whittle down the package’s price tag, but it

won’t end up too far from what the president has proposed. If lawmakers then follow up with a second

fiscal package along the lines we currently expect, growth this year will be much stronger. Real GDP
growth this year would come in well over 6%, up from the near 5% growth we are projecting, and the

economy would return to full employment by early 2022. How fiscal policy plays out in coming

months is difficult to gauge. What is clear is that it will be a strong tailwind to the economy’s growth.


The economy will also be supercharged on the other side of the pandemic. Households will unleash the
considerable pent-up demand that built up during the pandemic, when they were unable or too fearful

to spend freely. There is of course the desire to travel again, eat out, go to a ball game and movies, and

simply get a haircut. There also appears to be substantial pent-up demand for new vehicles. Annual

new-vehicle sales in recent years have hovered just above 17 million units. Last year, only 14.4 million
units were sold. Simple arithmetic suggests 2.6 million in pent-up new-vehicle sales. This probably

overstates the case since car buyers bought more used vehicles, but carmakers should have a good
year—if the current chip shortage plaguing production doesn’t drag on.

Middle- and high-income households also have plenty saved up to spend when they feel it is safe. As of

December, we estimate there was over $1.6 trillion in excess personal saving, equal to 7% of GDP. Just
how long it will take for households to be fully able and willing to unleash their pent-up demand is all

but imponderable. We expect it will take some time for households to feel unencumbered and let loose
with their spending, pushing more growth off into 2022. But it is hard to debate the economists who

think it won’t take that long.

With the economy set to experience strong or even boom-like growth,

some economists

are concerned

that the economy will blow past full employment, and inflation will become undesirably high. The
boom may be followed by a bust. To be sure, inflation will accelerate, and if the economy sticks roughly

to our script, inflation will rise meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target. However, this is by design. It is
precisely what the Fed is aiming for in its new monetary policy framework after more than a decade of

unsuccessfully battling undesirably low inflation. There is even a meaningful possibility that at some
point in the next two or three years inflation will accelerate beyond what the Fed is comfortable with,

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The Week Ahead










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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

say closer to 3%. But the Fed has a clear guidebook for fixing this problem, namely higher interest

rates. It has been a long time since interest rates have fully normalized.

A more immediate concern is surging asset prices. Prices have risen sharply for stocks, bonds, single-
family housing, and many commodities since hitting bottom last spring. Valuations are now stretched.

Stock price-earnings multiples are as high as they have been since the Y2K bubble, bond prices have

never been higher, and house prices as measured by the FHFA for homes with loans insured by Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac are estimated to be overvalued by almost 15%. To be sure, Treasury yields are
about as low as they have ever been, which supports high valuations, and each asset has its own story

for why prices are so high. But markets appear to be turning speculative. That’s when investors buy an

asset simply because they believe they can quickly sell the asset to other investors at a higher price.
Symptoms are the GameStop kerfuffle, the scramble to purchase homes in many second-home and

vacation markets, and the parabolic increase in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These frothy asset
markets are vulnerable to significant corrections, particularly once investors begin to anticipate that the

Fed will begin to unwind its extraordinary monetary policy support, and interest rates rise. To forestall

this, the Fed will need to carefully communicate its intentions to investors well in advance of acting.
However, calibrating this message in the midst of the boom-like economy that we expect later this

year will be difficult.

Meanwhile, handwringing over what could go wrong if the economy takes off feels a bit like putting the
cart before the horse. It is important to consider the unintended consequences of the monetary and

fiscal policy decisions being made today in an effort to mitigate them. But, given what we’ve been
through this past year, most everyone is likely willing to take their chances with a booming economy.

Next Week

New-home sales and revised building permits for January will be released next week by the Census

Bureau. Figures released this week indicate that after a strong run U.S. residential investment cooled

early this year as housing starts dropped 6% in January to 1.58 million annualized units. Other coming
housing data will include pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors, the FHFA
purchase-only house price index, and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Prices have

been rising fast in much of the country. A key inflation measure will come with the PCE deflator for
January. For December, headline and core PCE inflation rose 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, after no

change the prior two months. Core PCE inflation was up 1.5% from a year prior.


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The Week Ahead










CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

EUROPE

By Ross Cioffi of Moody’s Analytics

French Lockdown Will Cut Into Q4 GDP

Detailed estimates of fourth-quarter GDP in Germany, France, Portugal and Sweden will be the center

of focus next week. There will be some divergence in terms of performance. We expect France to have

the worst quarter of the bunch, with GDP falling 1.3% q/q. This is largely because France imposed a

strict lockdown during November and only had a short period in December when the economy was

allowed to breathe again. Meanwhile, we expect Germany grew 0.1% q/q, in line with the preliminary

estimate. Unlike France, Germany spent most of the fourth quarter with only light social distancing

regulations. Moreover, the country’s industrial base benefitted from export demand from Asia and

North America. In each of the economies, we expect the main story to be similar. That is, the second

wave of the COVID-19 pandemic squeezed private consumption, leaving investment and net trade to

either make up for or exacerbate the problem.

Sweden likely grew 0.5% q/q in the final three months of 2020 as its industrial sector and net trade
finished the year relatively strong. That said, we expect the unemployment rate worsened in January,

rising to 8.4% from 8.2% in December. Although the country continues to eschew lockdown measures,

the services sector is suffering as consumers voluntarily practice social distancing. Moreover, retail sales

only partially rebounded, with 2% m/m growth in January, after the 4.9% plunge in December.
Unemployment likely worsened in the U.K. as well. There, we expect the three-month moving average

rate rose to 5.1% in December from 5% in November. The intensification of lockdown measures during

the month likely pushed more businesses to close despite ongoing government supports.


Meanwhile, the euro zone’s consumer price index likely rose 0.9% y/y in January after declining 0.3% in

the previous month. However, the jump in prices comes mainly due to base effects (namely the

expiration of the German 3-ppt VAT cut), not the heating up of the euro zone economy.

Finally, given the perceived sluggishness of vaccination rollouts across the EU we expect business and

consumer confidence will have slumped this month. The European Commission’s ESI indicator likely fell
to 91 from January’s 91.5. We expect intentions to make major purchases fell while unemployment

fears and intentions to save increased. Although the slow rollout of the vaccine likely hurt current
sentiment indicators, the fact that vaccinations are being distributed will have buoyed sentiment
anyway.

Key indicators

Units

Moody's Analytics

Last

Tues @ 8:00 a.m.

U.K.: Unemployment for December

% 3-mo MA

5.1

5.0

Tues @ 9:30 a.m.

Sweden: Unemployment for January

%

8.4

8.2

Tues @ 11:00 a.m.

Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index for January

% change yr ago

0.9

-0.3

Wed @ 8:00 a.m.

Germany: GDP for Q4

% change

0.1

8.5

Thur @ 11:00 a.m.

Euro Zone: Business and Consumer Sentiment for February

index

91.0

91.5

Fri @ 6:30 a.m.

Netherlands: Retail Sales for December

% change yr ago

3.8

-3.1

Fri @ 8:45 a.m.

France: GDP for Q4

% change

-1.3

18.7

Fri @ 8:45 a.m.

France: Household Consumption Survey for January

% change

-2.0

23.0

Fri @ 9:30 a.m.

Sweden: GDP for Q4

% change

0.5

4.9

Fri @ 10:00 a.m.

Sweden: Retail Sales for November

% change

2.0

-4.9

Fri @ 12:00 p.m.

France: Job Seekers for January

mil, SA

3.5

3.6

Fri @ 12:00 p.m.

Portugal: GDP for Q4

% change

0.4

13.3

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Asia-Pacific

By Shahana Mukherjee of Moody’s Analytics

Fourth Quarter Pickup Likely for India’s Economy

We expect India’s GDP to have grown by 2% in quarterly terms in the December quarter. This should

translate into a yearly decline of 6.3%, following a 7.5% decline in the prior quarter, and result in a full-

year contraction of 8.6% in 2020.

The Indian economy marked a stronger than expected turnaround in the September quarter as

pandemic-related restrictions eased and domestic demand picked up, partially benefitting from the

festive season. On the expenditure side, domestic spending has continued to revive since then, while

on the production end, agricultural output is expected to have remained strong and manufacturing

activity also improved relative to the prior quarter. We expect some degree of normalization in

consumer spending and possibly a marginal improvement in fixed investment spending to have

supported the quarterly pickup.

Central banks will also announce their monetary policy decisions this week. We expect the Bank of

Korea to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at the record low 0.5% in its February

announcement. Although South Korea’s economy experienced a notable trade-led economic revival in

the second half of 2020, the third wave of COVID-19 has weighed heavily on the domestic labour

market; the unemployment rate soared to 5.4% in January from 4.6% in December.

Although new cases are past their peak, monetary settings will need to remain conducive for expansion

amid the current uncertainty. The pressure on policymakers to do more is higher than before, but

another round of monetary easing is unlikely at this stage, given the limited bandwidth for further

accommodation and the risk of exacerbating domestic financial imbalances.

Similarly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep the official cash rate unchanged at

0.25% in February, while maintaining its large-scale asset purchase program. With employment

continuing to recover and inflation coming in stronger than expected, the economy appears to be in a

relatively resilient position. A move into negative interest rate territory was always a low probability in

our view, and the current momentum will further weaken the scope for this in the short term.

Industrial activity in parts of Asia is expected to have mostly recovered further in January. Japan’s

industrial production likely rose by 3.5% in monthly terms in January and Singapore’s industrial output

likely rose by 1.5% over this period, largely aided by the ongoing revival in overseas demand.

Key indicators

Units

Moody's Analytics Confidence Risk

Last

Tues @ 8:00 a.m.

South Korea Consumer Sentiment for February

Index

92

2

95.4

Wed @ 12:00 p.m.

New Zealand Monetary Policy for February

%

0.25

4

0.25

Thur @ 12:00 p.m.

South Korea Monetary Policy for February

%

0.5

4

0.5

Fri @ 10:50 a.m.

Japan Industrial Production for January

% change

3.5

3

-1

Fri @ 10:50 a.m.

Japan Retail Sales for January

% change

0.5

3

-0.8

Fri @ 3:00 p.m.

Malaysia Foreign Trade for January

MYR bil

20

3

20.7

Fri @ 4:00 p.m.

Singapore Industrial Production for January

% change yr ago

7

3

14.3

Fri @ 11:00 p.m.

India GDP for Q4

% change yr ago

-6.3

3

-7.5

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11

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

The Long View

d

The Long View

First-quarter 2021 may show the fewest net U.S. high-yield downgrades

since 2010’s third quarter.

By John Lonski, Chief Capital Markets Economist, Moody’s Capital Markets Research

February 18, 2021

CREDIT SPREADS

As measured by Moody's long-term average corporate bond yield, the recent investment grade corporate
bond yield spread of 101 basis points was less than its 116 basis-point median of the 30 years ended 2019.

This spread may be no wider than 110 bp by year-end 2021.

The recent composite high-yield bond spread of 350 bp approximates what is suggested by the

accompanying long-term Baa industrial company bond yield spread of 142 bp but is much narrower than

what might be inferred from the recent VIX of 22.2 points. The latter has been historically associated with a

645-bp midpoint for a composite high-yield bond spread.

DEFAULTS

January 2021’s U.S. high-yield default rate of 8.3% was up from January 2020’s 4.3%. The recent average

high-yield EDF metric of 2.31% portend a less-than-4% default rate by 2021’s final quarter.

US CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE

Fourth-quarter 2019’s worldwide offerings of corporate bonds revealed annual advances of 9% for IG and

330% for high-yield, wherein US$-denominated offerings dipped by 0.8% for IG and surged higher by 331%

for high yield.

First-quarter 2020’s worldwide offerings of corporate bonds revealed annual advances of 14% for IG and 19%

for high-yield, wherein US$-denominated offerings increased 45% for IG and grew 12% for high yield.

Second-quarter 2020’s worldwide offerings of corporate bonds revealed annual surges of 69% for IG and

32% for high-yield, wherein US$-denominated offerings increased 142% for IG and grew 45% for high yield.

Third-quarter 2020’s worldwide offerings of corporate bonds revealed an annual decline of 6% for IG and an

annual advance of 44% for high-yield, wherein US$-denominated offerings increased 12% for IG and soared

upward 56% for high yield.

Fourth-quarter 2020’s worldwide offerings of corporate bonds revealed an annual decline of 3% for IG and an

annual advance of 8% for high-yield, wherein US$-denominated offerings increased 16% for IG and 11% for

high yield.

For 2019, worldwide corporate bond offerings grew 5.8% annually (to $2.456 trillion ) for IG and advanced

51.6% for high yield (to $570 billion ). The annual percent increases for 2020’s worldwide corporate bond

offerings are 19.7% (to $2.940 trillion ) for IG and 23.9% (to $706 billion ) for high yield. The expected annual

declines for 2021’s worldwide rated corporate bond issuance are 18% for investment-grade and 3% for high-

yield.

US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Unacceptably high unemployment and other low rates of resource utilization will rein in Treasury bond yields.

As long as the global economy operates below trend, 1.25% will serve as the upper bound for the 10-year
Treasury yield. Until COVID-19 risks fade substantially, wider credit spreads are possible. For now, the
corporate credit market has priced in the widespread distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine by mid-2021.

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

The Long View

d

Europe

By Ross Cioffi of Moody’s Analytics

February 18, 2021

SWEDEN

Household net savings rose to SEK47 billion in Sweden in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was SEK20 billion higher

than it was in the same period a year earlier and the highest level registered for a fourth quarter, when consumers

typically spend more during the holiday season. Total liabilities stood at SEK80.1 billion , up from SEK61.3 billion a

year earlier, while total assets rose to SEK126.6 billion from SEK87.8 billion .

Much of the savings is sitting in bank accounts; net deposits were SEK36 billion in the fourth quarter, another

record-high level for a fourth quarter. The increase in aggregate savings hides the difficulties that individual

households are facing amidst growing unemployment and job insecurity. In December, the unemployment rate

jumped to 8.2% from 7.7% in November.

However, the net savings figures bring hope that when the pandemic comes under control and anxieties abate,

consumers will have the means to spend again. Although Sweden’s social distancing measures preclude the closure

of nonessential retail and services, the pandemic has changed consumer behavior: Consumers are avoiding crowded

establishments not just to save money in case of prolonged economic difficulties, but over health concerns as well.

As a result, the high savings rate reflects an overall weak demand environment in the country.

Swedish inflation sped up in January

The inflation rate sped up considerably in Sweden at the start of 2021; however, we are not taking this as a sign

that the economy is heating up. Demand conditions remain too weak and uncertain to argue that January's price

increases reflect a robust recovery. Alongside the household savings data, the most recent retail sales data show

that sales fell by 4.9% m/m and 0.6% y/y in December, while car registrations plunged by 27.7% y/y. Although

Sweden's light-touch lockdown has avoided store closures, consumers have taken to precautionary savings as job

and income insecurity remains elevated. All this means that for firms to attract customers, they will have to avoid

raising prices too quickly.

The jump in inflation comes mainly off base effects. Most notably, energy prices surged in January because of

inclement weather, which drove up demand for electricity and heating while weighing on supply. The effects will

therefore be temporary, though it looks like there will be a similar effect on energy prices in February. Alongside

electricity costs, however, oil prices have been steadily rising since November, with the price of Brent crude already

above where it was a year ago in futures markets. The effect on energy prices will be tangible come March and

April, when a year earlier oil prices had plummeted to zero.

Although the inflation rate picked up, and market-based expectations for inflation have recovered, the Riksbank will

maintain its dovish policy position. Tightening monetary conditions would be premature before a recovery in the

real economy takes root, and this cannot happen until the pandemic abates and global demand recovers. According

to the forward guidance announced from the Riksbank's February meeting, there will be no changes to the policy

one-week repurchase rate before 2024.

UNITED KINGDOM

U.K. CPI inflation accelerated to 0.7% y/y in January from 0.6% in December. The headline was supported by a

strong rise in prices for furniture and maintenance, and restaurants and hotels, together with softer drops in prices

of food and nonalcoholic beverages. Prices of clothing and footwear fell at a sharper pace. Service prices picked up

to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% previously. Core inflation held steady at 1.4% y/y.

Despite stricter lockdown measures at the start of the year, annual inflation ticked up in January. However, this was

mainly driven by base effects, as prices actually fell in monthly terms from December. Moreover, we shouldn’t be

fooled by the uptick in cultural and recreational services and goods; as has been the case for most of the year,

increases in this category have stemmed from video game and console purchases, which have remained strong

during the pandemic. For most other goods and services, however, demand will remain muted amid the strict

national lockdown and closure of schools until at least early March. This will keep inflation low over the coming

months, at least until some of the temporary value-added tax cuts expire at the end of March.

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

The Long View

d

Asia Pacific

By Shahana Mukherjee of Moody’s Analytics

February 18, 2021

JAPAN

Japan’s December quarter performance surprised on the upside, as the economy grew at a stronger than

expected rate of 3% in quarterly terms following a 5.3% rebound in the prior quarter. This translated into a

full-year contraction of 4.8% in 2020. The quarterly gain was expectedly driven by a resilient external

position. Export growth strengthened, rising by 11.1% in the final quarter, and contributed a significant 1.7

percentage points to the net increase. Private consumption expenditure growth, however, eased over this

period, rising by 2.2%, while private nonresidential investment returned to growth with an impressive 4.5%

increase, marking the first pickup in three quarters.

The final quarter reading should be viewed favourably for three reasons. First, the COVID-19 resurgence in

Western economies, which resulted in the reimposition of shutdowns across major markets, did not trigger

the much-feared pullback in durables spending, which benefitted Japanese exporters. Moreover, China’s

recovery continued to provide an important cushion which mitigated the Europe-centric dent in demand.

Second, the domestic third wave of the virus intensified over this period and undermined consumer spending,

but some degree of normalization was still underway from the prior quarter and ensured the quarterly

increase despite retail spending having contracted in the last two months of 2020. Third, the extent of pickup

in nonresidential investment was well above our expectations and added 0.7 percentage point to growth. The

turnaround in investor expectations will be particularly crucial in the months ahead, as the benefits from a

boost in investment and hiring decisions will eventually accrue to households.

At this stage, Japan’s prospects look more favourable and the downside risks are beginning to fade. Not only

are local COVID-19 cases from the third wave past their peak, but the approval of the Pfizer vaccine is a

significant development that brought forward to mid-February the commencement date of the inoculation

drive. The extended state of emergency in selected prefectures will still dent domestic demand in the March

quarter, but restrictions were much more limited this time around, so the contraction will be softer than in

April and May last year. On the external front too, vaccine rollouts are underway in key markets and this

should buoy the pickup in consumption in the months ahead, as will China’s recovery.

As long as the domestic vaccine rollout drive is carried out with limited interruption, household confidence

should revive in the months ahead. A successful rollout will support a sustained domestic demand recovery,

as policy setting remains conducive to growth. Local resistance towards the vaccine may cause some

disruptions, but the larger effects will still be substantially positive and anchor the domestic rebound in 2021.

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14

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Ratings Round-Up

Ratings Round-Up

U.S. Downgrades Comprise Half of Changes, but Nearly 90% of Affected

Debt

By Steven Shields

February 18, 2021

U.S. rating change activity was largely credit negative in the latest period. For the week ended February 16,

downgrades comprised half of the total changes, but nearly 90% of the affected debt. Rating activity

remained largely confined to speculative-grade companies with only two changes issued to investment-grade

firms. The week’s most notable downgrade was issued to V.F. Corp., with Moody’s Investors Service lowering
the firms’ senior unsecured credit rating to Baa1 from A3. In its report, Moody’s Investors Service noted the

rating action reflects the expectation that V.F. Corp.’s financial leverage will remain elevated over the next

several years. The upgrade impacted approximately $5.8 billion in outstanding debt. Meanwhile, the largest
upgrade in the period was issued to The Fresh Market Inc., affecting $800 million in outstanding debt.
According to the rating action, the upgrade of the grocer’s senior secured rating to B3 from Caa1 reflects

Fresh Market’s improved EBITDA and sales growth as consumers increased transaction sizes while lowering

the number of trips to the store during the pandemic. The company’s outlook is stable. While operating
trends will moderate in 2021, leverage will remain in good standing over the next 12 months, and financial

policies will remain supportive of Fresh Market’s stronger credit profile.

Similarly, downgrades accounted for half of the changes issued across Europe and nearly all the affected debt.

All ratings changes were issued to speculative-grade companies, while geographically the changes were issued

across three countries. The largest change in terms of debt affected was made to Haya Real Estate S.A.U. with
Moody’s Investors Service downgrading its senior secured rating to Caa1 from B3. According to the rating

action report, the downgrade reflects the increasing uncertainty associated with a refinancing of Haya's senior

secured notes in November 2022, given the company's weaker than expected financial performance, high
leverage and uncertain economic prospects. The outlook on all ratings has been changed to negative from

stable.

FIGURE 1

Rating Changes - US Corporate & Financial Institutions: Favorable as % of Total Actions

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Dec01

Feb05

Apr08

Jun11

Aug14

Oct17

Dec20

By Count of Actions

By Amount of Debt Affected

* Trailing 3-month average
Source: Moody's

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15

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Ratings Round-Up

FIGURE 2

Rating Key

BCF

Bank Credit Facility Rating

MM

Money-Market

CFR

Corporate Family Rating

MTN

MTN Program Rating

CP

Commercial Paper Rating

Notes

Notes

FSR

Bank Financial Strength Rating

PDR

Probability of Default Rating

IFS

Insurance Financial Strength Rating

PS

Preferred Stock Rating

IR

Issuer Rating

SGLR

Speculative-Grade Liquidity Rating

JrSub

Junior Subordinated Rating

SLTD

Short- and Long-Term Deposit Rating

LGD

Loss Given Default Rating

SrSec

Senior Secured Rating

LTCF

Long-Term Corporate Family Rating

SrUnsec

Senior Unsecured Rating

LTD

Long-Term Deposit Rating

SrSub

Senior Subordinated

LTIR

Long-Term Issuer Rating

STD

Short-Term Deposit Rating

FIGURE 3

Rating Changes: Corporate & Financial Institutions – US

Date

Company

Sector

Rating

Amount

($ Million)

Up/

Down

Old LTD

Rating

New

LTD

Rating

IG/SG

2/10/21

NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY
-LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY OF NORTH
AMERICA

Financial

IFSR

U

A2

Aaa

IG

2/10/21 V.F. CORPORATION

Industrial SrUnsec/Sub/MTN/PS

5,806

D

A3

Baa1

IG

2/10/21 FRESH MARKET, INC. (THE)

Industrial

SrSec/LTCFR/PDR

800

U

Caa1

B3

SG

2/11/21 TALBOTS, INC. (THE)

Industrial SrSec/BCF/LTCFR/PDR

D

B3

Caa3

SG

2/12/21

GREAT WESTERN OIL & GAS COMPANY, LLC
-GREAT WESTERN PETROLEUM, LLC

Industrial

LTCFR/PDR

U

Caa3

B3

SG

2/12/21

EXTERRAN CORPORATION
-EXTERRAN ENERGY SOLUTIONS, L.P.

Industrial

SrUnsec/LTCFR/PDR

375

D

B1

B3

SG

2/12/21

LONESTAR II INTERMEDIATE HOLDINGS LLC
-LONESTAR II GENERATION HOLDINGS LLC

Industrial

SrSec/BCF

D

Ba3

B1

SG

2/16/21 84 LUMBER COMPANY

Industrial

SrSec/BCF

U

B3

B2

SG

Source: Moody's

FIGURE 4

Rating Changes: Corporate & Financial Institutions – Europe

Date

Company

Sector

Rating

Amount

($ Million)

Up/

Down

Old

LTD

Rating

New

LTD

Rating

IG/SG

Country

2/10/21 HAYA REAL ESTATE, S.A.U.

Industrial SrSec/LTCFR/PDR

576

D

B3

Caa1

SG

SPAIN

2/11/21 ARVOS MIDCO S.A R.L.

Industrial

PDR

U

Caa3 Caa1

SG LUXEMBOURG

2/15/21 ONTEX GROUP NV

Industrial

LTCFR/PDR

D

Ba3

B1

SG

BELGIUM

2/16/21

DISTRIBUIDORA INTERNACIONAL
DE ALIMENTACION, S.A.

Industrial

PDR

U

Caa3 Caa2

SG

SPAIN

Source: Moody's

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16

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Market Data

Market Data

Spreads

0

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Spread (bp)

Spread (bp)

Aa2

A2

Baa2

Source: Moody's

Figure 1: 5-Year Median Spreads-Global Data (High Grade)

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Spread (bp)

Spread (bp)

Ba2

B2

Caa-C

Source: Moody's

Figure 2: 5-Year Median Spreads-Global Data (High Yield)

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17

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Market Data

CDS Movers

CDS Implied Rating Rises
Issuer

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Senior Ratings

Citigroup Inc.

A3

Baa1

A3

Wells Fargo & Company

Baa1

Baa2

A2

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc . (The)

Baa1

Baa2

A2

Verizon Communications Inc .

Baa1

Baa2

Baa1

John Deere Capital Corporation

Baa1

Baa2

A2

Exxon Mobil Corporation

A1

A2

Aa1

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

B2

B3

Ba2

NextEra Energy Capital Holdings, Inc.

A3

Baa1

Baa1

United Airlines, Inc.

Caa3

Ca

Ba3

Waste Management, Inc.

Baa1

Baa2

Baa1

CDS Implied Rating Declines
Issuer

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Senior Ratings

Comcast Corporation

A1

Aa3

A3

3M Company

Aa3

Aa2

A1

Johnson & Johnson

Aa1

Aaa

Aaa

Intel Corporation

Aa3

Aa2

A1

Home Depot, Inc . (The)

Aa1

Aaa

A2

Amgen Inc.

A1

Aa3

Baa1

Honeywell International Inc.

Aa1

Aaa

A2

Dominion Energy, Inc .

A2

A1

Baa2

Southern Company (The)

Aa2

Aa1

Baa2

NRG Energy, Inc .

Ba2

Ba1

Ba2

CDS Spread Increases
Issuer

Senior Ratings

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Spread Diff

NRG Energy, Inc .

Ba2

152

105

46

Macy's Retail Holdings, LLC

B1

528

487

41

Pitney Bowes Inc.

B1

436

400

36

American Axle & Manufacturing, Inc .

B2

390

360

29

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

B3

268

240

28

Lumen Technologies, Inc .

B2

253

226

27

KB Home

Ba3

164

141

23

Calpine Corporation

B2

276

255

21

Qwest Corporation

Ba2

140

125

15

MDC Partners Inc.

B3

86

72

14

CDS Spread Decreases
Issuer

Senior Ratings

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Spread Diff

Talen Energy Supply, LLC

B3

884

1,069

-185

K. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc .

Caa3

794

933

-139

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

B2

602

636

-34

Nabors Industries, Inc .

Caa2

1,008

1,037

-29

Expedia Group, Inc.

Baa3

83

109

-26

Murphy Oil Corporation

Ba3

402

425

-23

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Ba2

275

297

-22

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Ba2

95

117

-22

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (The)

B2

241

257

-16

Carnival Corporation

B2

501

515

-14

Source: Moody's, CMA

CDS Spreads

CDS Implied Ratings

CDS Implied Ratings

CDS Spreads

Figure 3. CDS Movers - US ( February 10, 2021 – February 17, 2021)

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Market Data

CDS Implied Rating Rises
Issuer

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Senior Ratings

Novo Banco, S.A .

Ba3

B3

Caa2

National Bank of Greece S.A.

B1

B3

Caa1

Deutsche Bank AG

Baa1

Baa2

A3

Barclays PLC

Baa1

Baa2

Baa2

Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen GZ

Baa1

Baa2

Aa3

Daimler AG

Baa1

Baa2

A3

UniCredit Bank Austria AG

Aaa

Aa1

Baa1

Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.

Baa1

Baa2

A2

Unione di Banche Italiane S.p.A.

Baa1

Baa2

Baa1

Atlantia S.p.A.

Ba2

Ba3

Ba3

CDS Implied Rating Declines
Issuer

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Senior Ratings

Vivendi SA

A2

Aa2

Baa2

Natixis

Aa2

Aa1

A1

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A .

Aa3

Aa2

A3

ING Groep N.V .

Aa3

Aa2

Baa1

Electricite de France

A3

A2

A3

Orange

Aa2

Aa1

Baa1

Standard Chartered PLC

A3

A2

A2

Nationwide Building Society

A1

Aa3

A1

E.ON SE

Aa2

Aa1

Baa2

GlaxoSmithKline plc

Aa1

Aaa

A2

CDS Spread Increases
Issuer

Senior Ratings

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Spread Diff

Iceland Bondco plc

Caa2

372

337

35

CMA CGM S.A.

Caa1

427

408

19

Ziggo Bond Company B.V .

B3

209

198

11

Stena AB

Caa1

640

633

8

Vivendi SA

Baa2

42

37

6

Virgin Media Finance PLC

B2

237

231

5

Premier Foods Finance plc

B3

211

206

5

METRO Finance B.V.

Ba1

73

69

4

UPC Holding B.V .

B3

206

202

4

Pearson plc

Baa3

60

57

4

CDS Spread Decreases
Issuer

Senior Ratings

Feb. 17

Feb. 10

Spread Diff

Novo Banco, S.A .

Caa2

186

330

-143

National Bank of Greece S.A.

Caa1

225

290

-66

Novafives S.A.S.

Caa2

846

882

-35

TUI AG

Caa1

705

730

-25

Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA

Caa1

570

585

-15

Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc

B1

378

387

-9

Avon Products, Inc.

B1

206

214

-9

Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A.

Caa3

545

552

-8

Greece, Government of

Ba3

73

79

-6

Italy, Government of

Baa3

70

75

-5

Source: Moody's, CMA

CDS Spreads

CDS Implied Ratings

CDS Implied Ratings

CDS Spreads

Figure 4. CDS Movers - Europe ( February 10, 2021 – February 17, 2021)

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COM

CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Market Data

Issuance

0

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

0

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

Jan Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Issuance ($B)

Issuance ($B)

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source:

Moody's / Dealogic

Figure 5. Market Cumulative Issuance - Corporate & Financial Institutions: USD Denominated

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Jan Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Issuance ($B)

Issuance ($B)

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source:

Moody's / Dealogic

Figure 6. Market Cumulative Issuance - Corporate & Financial Institutions: Euro Denominated

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FEBRUARY 18, 2021

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Market Data

Investment-Grade

High-Yield

Total*

Amount

Amount

Amount

$B

$B

$B

Weekly

12.200

19.076

31.451

Year-to-Date

223.596

108.247

342.462

Investment-Grade

High-Yield

Total*

Amount

Amount

Amount

$B

$B

$B

Weekly

11.238

4.214

15.548

Year-to-Date

102.812

24.370

130.199

* Difference represents issuance with pending ratings.

Source: Moody's/ Dealogic

USD Denominated

Euro Denominated

Figure 7. Issuance: Corporate & Financial Institutions

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CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Moody’s Capital Markets Research recent publications

Prices Rise Here, There and Everywhere (Capital Market Research)
Investment-Grade Bond Offerings to Slow from 2020’s Torrid Pace (Capital Market Research)
Not All Debt Is Equal ( Capital Market Research )
Market Value of U.S. Common Stock Soars to Record-High 185% of GDP (Capital Market Research)
Stimulatory Monetary and Fiscal Policies Enhance Corporate Credit Outlook ( Capital Market Research )
Financial Markets Have Largely Priced-In 2021’s Positive Outlook (Capital Market Research)
Core Profits and U.S. Equities Set New Record Highs (Capital Market Research)
Operating Leverage May Help to Narrow Yield Spreads in 2021 (Capital Market Research)
Resurgent COVID-19 Threatens Corporate Credit’s Improved Trend (Capital Market Research)
Split Congress Sparks Rallies by Equities, Corporates and Treasuries (Capital Market Research)
Credit Disputes Equities Gloom ( Capital Market Research )
Corporate Cash Outruns Corporate Debt (Capital Market Research)
Profits Give Direction to Downgrades and Defaults (Capital Market Research)
Markets Sense an Upturn Despite Pockets of Profound Misery ( Capital Market Research )
Record-High Bond Issuance Aids Nascent Upturn (Capital Market Research)
Corporate Bond Issuance Boom May Steady Credit Quality, On Balance (Capital Market Research)
Markets, Bankers and Analysts Differ on 2021’s Default Rate ( Capital Market Research )
Corporate Credit Mostly Unfazed by Equity Volatility (Capital Market Research)
Record August for Bond Issuance May Aid Credit Quality ( Capital Market Research )
Fed Policy Shift Bodes Well for Corporate Credit ( Capital Markets Research )
Markets Avoid Great Recession’s Calamities ( Capital Markets Research )
Liquidity Surge Hints of More Upside Surprises (Capital Markets Research)
Unprecedented Stimulus Lessens the Blow from Real GDP’s Record Dive (Capital Markets Research)
Ultra-Low Bond Yields Buoy Corporate Borrowing ( Capital Markets Research )
Record-High Savings Rate and Ample Liquidity May Fund an Upside Surprise ( Capital Markets Research )
Unprecedented Demographic Change Will Shape Credit Markets Through 2030 (Capital Markets Research)
Net High-Yield Downgrades Drop from Dreadful Readings of March and April (Capital Markets Research)
Long Stay by Low Rates Fuels Corporate Debt and Equity Rallies (Capital Markets Research)
Why Industrial (Warehouse) Will (Likely) Fare Better (Capital Markers Research)
CECL Adoption and Q1 Results Amid COVID-19 ( Capital Markets Research )
Continued Signs of Weakness in US Non-Agency RMBS (Capital Markets Research)
COVID-19 and Distress in CMBS Markets (Capital Markets Research)
Record-Fast Money Growth Eases Market Anxiety ( Capital Markets Research )
Default Outlook: Markets Appear Less Worried than Credit Analysts ( Capital Markets Research )

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