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Trade, Housing & Q3 Earnings: Mixed Overall

Mark Vickery

Tuesday, November 26, 2019


Two pieces of economic data have hit the tape ahead of today’s opening bell, including Advance Trade in Goods for October. This number, obviously in deep negative territory — especially since these monthly numbers basically fell off a cliff as soon as the 21st century began — was better than expected: -$66.53 billion, an improvement on the -$70.3 billion estimated and the downwardly revised -$70.55 billion for September.


This October print marks the lowest Advance Trade in Goods number in the past 12 months. In fact, after coming off all-time lows near -$80 billion a year ago, these figures are buoying back up to levels not seen since 2016. In other words: good news.


Case-Shiller Housing Index numbers for September (a late piece of data which is nevertheless an historically very accurate one) were basically in-line with expectations: 3.2% on the headline, up 10 basis points from the downwardly revised 3.1% in August. The 10-City rose 1.5% year over year, unched month over month. The 20-City did marginally better, +2.1% from the 2.0% reported for the previous month.


The usual suspects — Phoenix, Charlotte, Tampa — led the way for the month in climbing home sales, with only San Francisco posting a negative figure for September. These numbers jibe with a very favorable mortgage rate environment, which ranges between 3.6-4.0%.


Tomorrow, a day ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday (when markets are closed, and trade only until noon Friday), we have a full plate of economic indicators, including Jobless Claims, the 1st revision of Q3 GDP, Durable Goods orders, Personal Income, Consumer Spending, Pending Home Sales and the latest Beige Book. This will be more than enough for investors to digest over the long holiday weekend.


In the latest Q3 Earnings Roundup, we see shares of DollarTree (DLTRtumbling 13% on a bottom-line miss and a big drop in Q4 earnings projections. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) likewise is down 13% in the pre-market today on a disappointing earnings performance. But Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKShas gained over 11% on its Q3 report ahead of the opening bell.


Mark Vickery

Senior Editor


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