The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, one of the biggest and most important events of the year for biotech investors, kicks off this week.
Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison compiled a report on all the things investors should be watching for from the companies attending the conference. Here’s a brief overview.
- Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) - Expect in-line preliminary Q4 results and in-line to slightly above-consensus guidance for 2018. Morgan Stanley is calling for 2018 EPS of $8.82 on revenue of $14.8 billion.
- Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: SRPT) - Look for Exondys 51 Q4 commentary and potential 2018 guidance. Morgan Stanley expects $57 million in Q4 revenue and 2018 guidance in the $150 to $155 million range, not including Europe.
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: REGN) - Historically, management has provided expense guidance at the conference and revenue guidance on its Q4 earnings call. Morgan Stanley is calling for 2018 EPS of $14.36, roughly 15 percent below Wall Street consensus.
- BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN)- BioMarin will likely update shareholders on its hemophilia gene studies and/or its Brineura launch. Morgan Stanley says neither will likely be a major stock catalyst.
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) - While the company may preannounce Q4 numbers, management has said it is not issuing 2018 guidance until Tez/Iva is approved. Morgan Stanley expects a potential update on the companies cystic fibrosis triple-combination study would be the biggest possible conference catalyst.
- AveXis Inc (NASDAQ: AVXS) - Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect AveXis will be able to file an early submission for AXVS-101 based on strong Phase I data. But if the company announces an early filing, Morgan Stanley estimates 20 percent upside for the stock.
- DBV Technologies SA – ADR (NASDAQ: DBVT) - Morgan Stanley expects DBV will need to wait until after the pre-BLA meeting to provide shareholders with clarity on a potential timeline for Viaskin penut approval. However, if the company does provide a clear timeline at the conference, Harrison says the stock could rally 10 percent.
- Regenxbio Inc (NASDAQ: RGNX) - Investors should expect updates from the Phase II/Phase II study of RGX-501 in HoFH and from the Phase I study of RGX-314 in wet AMD. Morgan Stanley predicts these updates will include safety, PK/PD and limited initial efficacy data, but full efficacy data will likely not be released until the second half of 2018.
- Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) - Management pay provide an update on the Soliris gMG launch. With investor expectations relatively low, Morgan Stanley estimates strong launch metrics could drive Alexion shares up to 5 percent higher.
- Portola Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: PTLA) - Investors should expect an update on the Bevyexxa launch and potentially the AndexXa delay. Morgan Stanley predicts that positive commentary on ANNEXA-4 thrombosis risk, the stock could see 15 percent upside.
- Denali Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: DNLI) - Investors should expect an update on the path for DNL201 development and potentially announce an IND filing for DNL747 (RIPK1). If a filing is announced, Morgan Stanley sees up to 5 percent upside for the stock.
- MacroGenics Inc (NASDAQ: MGNX) - The company pay provide an update on futility analysis of the Phase-III SOPHIA trial of margetuximab in treatment of HER2+breast cancer. Morgan Stanley sees more downside (25 percent) than upside (5 percent) risk for the stock given the well-validated treatment approach.
- Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: JUNO) - Positive CAR-T commentary from Gilead and/or Novartis could drive Juno shares higher. Management may also update shareholders on its TRANSEND NHL study, which Morgan Stanley says could be a 5 percent catalyst for the stock in either direction.
- Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd (NYSE: BHVN) - Negative safety data related to ubrogepant could trigger up to a 10 percent sell-off in Biohaven, Morgan Stanley estimates. Outside of safety concerns, investors should be focusing on the secondary endpoints in rimegepant’s Phase II data.
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