Trading Radar: Did Pressure Ease Off for Consumers in the Second Quarter?
Let's take a look ahead at what's coming up next week in potentially market-moving news.
On Monday, durable goods orders will be released. Because the headline figure is very volatile due to large aircraft orders from Boeing (BA), the figure that investors pay attention to is ex-transports. Durable goods ex-transports are expected to rise 0.5% in July, up from a decline of 0.1% in the month prior. Earlier this month, the ISM institute released its manufacturing survey. The survey showed strong growth at a reading of 55.4, up from 50.9 the prior month. Additionally, retail sales rose 0.2% in July.
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On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller/S&P home price index will be released. Economists expect to find that home prices rose 12.2% year-over-year in June, up slightly from a 12.17% gain in June. Also, the Conference Board's gauge of consumer confidence is expected to be released. Economists are predicting that consumer confidence has fallen off slightly, to 79.5 from 80.3 in the prior month. Last week, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 80.0 in August from 85.1 in the prior month.
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The second revision of 2Q GDP will be released on Thursday. Due to a much tighter than expected trade deficit in June, economists have increased their estimate for the quarter to an annualized rate of 2.2% from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' first estimate of 1.7%. This would imply a nominal GDP growth of 3% from the prior year. Personal consumption is not expected to rise any further.
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The last bit of economic news due out is July's personal spending growth, which will be released Friday. Consumption is expected to have grown by 0.3% in July, and by 3.2% versus a year ago. Also, incomes are estimated to have risen 0.2% in July, up 3.4% from a year ago. These figures will be key as the rate of growth in consumer spending and income growth both slowed in the second quarter. That slowdown showed up in spades in retailer earnings.
Earnings season has nearly come to a close, but a few retailers still remain. Workday (WDAY), Tiffany (TIF), Joy Global (JOY), Express (EXPR), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Salesforce.com (CRM) are scheduled to report next week.
Monday, August 26
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Durable Goods – consensus -4.0%, prior 4.2%
08:30 Durable Goods ex-Transports – consensus 0.55%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Shipments – prior -0.9%
10:30 Dallas Fed – consensus 4.0, prior 4.4
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
11:30 US to sell $30b 3M bills, $25b 6M bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
No major reports
Earnings
No major earnings
Tuesday, August 27
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20-City MoM – consensus 1.00%, prior 1.05%
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20-City YoY – consensus 12.15%, prior 12.17%
10:00 Richmond Fed – consensus -3, prior -11
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 79.0, prior 80.3
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 2017-2018 sector
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills,
1:00 Treasury to sell $34b 2-year notes
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence
08:00 EUR German IFO Expectations
Earnings
Before:
Tiffany (TIF)
After:
Workday (WDAY)
Wednesday, August 28
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Pending Home Sales – MoM consensus 0.0%, prior -0.4%
11:00 Fed buying $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
CNY Leading Index
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption
23:50 JPY Japan Buying of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
23:50 JPY Retail Trade
Earnings
Before:
Joy Global (JOY)
Express (EXPR)
After:
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Thursday, August 29
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - consensus 330k, prior 336k
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 2988K, prior 2999K
08:30 GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q 2nd estimate) – consensus 2.2%, prior 1.7%.
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 0.7%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ – consensus 0.8%, prior 0.8%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
1:00 Treasury to sell $29b 7-year notes
Fedspeak
8:50am Bullard speaks in Memphis
2:00pm Lacker speaks in Virginia
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate
12:00 EUR German CPI
23:30 JPY CPI
Earnings
After:
Krispy Kreme (KKD)
Salesforce.com (CRM)
Splunk (SPLK)
Friday, August 30
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.5%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.4%, prior 1.3%
08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.2%, prior 1.2%
09:00 ISM Milwaukee – prior 52.43
09:45 Chicago PMI – consensus 53, prior 52.3
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence – consensus 80.5, prior 80.0
Fedspeak
9:00am Bullard speaks in Memphis
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales
08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
Earnings
No major earnings
Twitter: @MichaelSedacca
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