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Trading Radar: Slower Back-to-School Season Likely Hurt Retail Sales

Michael Sedacca

Next week the pace of market-moving news will slow down, and news about Syria is likely to dominate headlines.

Early in the week, Congress will vote on the proposed resolution for military action in Syria. This resolution passed through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday by a 10-7 vote, with one senator voting present. Other political issues may also come into focus, such as the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

The biggest day for economic data is Friday. The August producer price index and retail sales will be released that morning. Retail sales are expected to rise an estimated 0.4% from the prior month. Producer prices are expected to slow to a 1.3% annual rate after rising 2.1% last month. The retail sales estimate may be very optimistic. The data we have received thus far for August retail sales has been very downbeat. Both ICSC and Johnson Redbook pointed to a very lackluster back-to-school sales season. Additionally, unseasonably warm weather during the month caused retailers to shift more of their sales to cheaper, warm-weather clothing rather than higher priced fall clothing. Johnson Redbook same store sales rose 0.6% during the month of August and ICSC/Goldman's retail sales index fell 1.9%.

[More from Minyanville.com: Pre-Market Primer: Microsoft Corporation May Increase Dividend; Syria Fears Drive Gold, Oil Up ]

The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index for the month of September will also be released on Friday. The index fell to 82.1 last month after rising to a new high of 85.1 in the month prior. The rise and fall of consumer confidence is highly correlated with asset prices (especially equity) and personal income. As take-home pay increases and asset values increase, consumers feel better about their personal finances.

The Treasury will issue long-term debt this week in the form of 3-year and 10-year notes as well as 30-year bonds. The Treasury began reducing its issuance two weeks ago by reducing the 2-year auction by $1 billion to $34 billion. This coming week, the 3-year auction will be reduced by $1 billion to $31 billion.

On Sunday, we'll see important numbers from China, including growth in the rate of lending, and both consumer and producer price growth. Economic data releases from China will continue throughout the week, with industrial production and retail sales also on tap. Elsewhere in the world, Australia and the UK will release their employment figures for the month of August.

[More from Minyanville.com: The 'Hottest,' Fastest-Growing Retailers in Groceries, Tech, Clothing, and Convenience ]

The only major earnings reports due out for the week are from Kroger (KR), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), PVH Corp (PVH), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Ulta Salon (ULTA).

Monday, September 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $12.65B, prior $13.818B
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month bills, $25b 6-month bills


11:00 Williams speaking in San Francisco

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Trade Balance
JPY Trade Balance
CNY New Yuan Loans
01:30 CNY CPI and PPI
01:30 AUD Home Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
05:45 CHF Employment Change
07:15 CHF Retail Sales
08:30 CHF Real Retail Sales

[More from Minyanville.com: Pre-Market Primer: Wal-Mart US Sales Drop; Jobless Claims Continue to Slide ]


Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)

PVH Corp (PVH)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Tuesday, September 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings – prior 3936
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 5 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $31b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:30 CNY Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment
08:00 EUR Italian GDP
12:15 CAD Housing Starts


Restoration Hardware Holdings (RH)

Wednesday, September 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
7:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY
10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.2%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $21b 10-year notes (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German CPI (final estimate)
08:30 GBP Employment, Jobless Claims Change
21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
5:30 Germany selling EU5b in 10-year notes


Vera Bradley (VRA)

Thursday, September 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - consensus 330k, prior 323k
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 2976K, prior 2951K
08:30 Import Price Index – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.2%
2:00 Treasury Budget Statement – consensus -$160B, prior -$97.6B
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Employment Change
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
12:30 CAD New Home Price Index
5:00 Italy to sell bonds
5:30 UK selling GBP3.75b in 10-year notes


Kroger's (KR)

Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Friday, September 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.3%, prior 2.1%
08:30 PPI MoM – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.3%, prior 1.2%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM – consensus 0.1%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.2%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (1 st estimate) – consensus 82.1, prior 82.1
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0%
11:00 Fed purchasing $3b-$4b notes in 6 to 7-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 NZD Consumer Confidence
04:30 JPY Industrial Production (final estimate)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance


No major earnings reports

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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