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Tricon Residential Inc.'s (TSE:TCN) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

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·3 min read
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With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 18x in Canada, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Tricon Residential Inc.'s (TSE:TCN) P/E ratio of 18.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Tricon Residential's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

See our latest analysis for Tricon Residential

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Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Tricon Residential will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Tricon Residential would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 9.2%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 18% overall rise in EPS. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 13% during the coming year according to the sole analyst following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 22% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Tricon Residential is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Tricon Residential currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Tricon Residential (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have grown earnings strongly and trade on P/E's below 20x.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.