Investors in Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:TBK) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.4% to close at US$40.74 following the release of its yearly results. Triumph Bancorp missed revenue estimates by 2.7%, with sales of US$280m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.25 beat expectations, coming in 2.5% ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Triumph Bancorp's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$304.3m in 2020. This would be a solid 8.9% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.26, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$308.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.38 in 2020. Analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share forecasts for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$40.17, with analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Triumph Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$45.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Triumph Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 8.9% increase next year well below the historical 25%p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the market with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still thinkTriumph Bancorp will grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that Triumph Bancorp's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Triumph Bancorp going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Triumph Bancorp's balance sheet, and whether we think Triumph Bancorp is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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