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Triumph Bancorp, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

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Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:TBK) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.2% to hit US$75m. Triumph Bancorp also reported a statutory profit of US$0.56, which was an impressive 623% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Triumph Bancorp

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After the latest results, the five analysts covering Triumph Bancorp are now predicting revenues of US$298.2m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a solid 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 30% to US$1.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$294.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.58 in 2020. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target rose 10% to US$29.17, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Triumph Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$36.00 and the most bearish at US$21.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Triumph Bancorp's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 13%, compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.0% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Triumph Bancorp is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Triumph Bancorp's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Triumph Bancorp going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Triumph Bancorp's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.