Atlantic's next tropical storm may soon spring to life near Cabo Verde islands
A new tropical system has taken shape off the west coast of Africa and has the potential to become the next tropical storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season as it passes through the Cabo Verde Islands this week.
Late Monday afternoon, Tropical Depression 15 developed and still has some chance of becoming a named tropical storm on Wednesday.
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This image, taken on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. A swirl of clouds can be seen in the far right of the image, which represents Tropical Depression 15 off the coast of Africa and may become Tropical Storm Nester in the coming days. Meanwhile, a large batch of showers and thunderstorms extended from Central America to the central Caribbean over the far left. (NOAA/GOES-East) |
The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin for 2019 is Nestor.
"It is rare to have a system ramp up quickly in this part of the Atlantic this late in the season," Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, said.
"Typically, conditions are quite hostile for development in this area of the Atlantic during the middle of October, but there is currently little wind shear present and water is sustainably warm," Kottlowski added.
The depression only has a short amount of time left to develop into a tropical storm before it encounters wind shear, weakens and/or is torn apart.
The system will continue to track northwestward and over the Cabo Verde Islands through midweek.
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Regardless of the classification of the storm, a general 1-3 inches (25-75 millimeters) of rain is forecast.
People and travel interests on the islands should be prepared for flight and cruise disruptions. Drenching downpours, gusty thunderstorms and building seas are anticipated. There is the risk of flash flooding and mudslides from excessive rainfall. Surf may become too dangerous for swimming.
"Once the system moves northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday, we anticipate it to track more to the west, be subject to increasing wind shear and encounter cooler waters," according to Kottlowski.
"These factors should cause the system to weaken late this week," he added.
Farther southwest, a broad area of disturbed weather over Central America bears watching later this week.
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A tropical system may develop over the western Gulf of Mexico late this week.
Regardless of development, that feature may cause a blossoming area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf and along the western and central Gulf coast later this week into this weekend.
Following Nestor, the next name on the list of tropical storms is Olga.
"In terms of the long-range outlook for the Atlantic Basin, there may be signifiant inhibiting factors for tropical development during the latter part of October into early November," Kottlowski said.
"It is possible that tropical activity effectively shuts down after the Cabo Verde feature and the potential Gulf of Mexico system," he added.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through the end of November.
As of Tuesday, Oct. 15, there have been 15 tropical depressions, 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather's prediction for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, issued in April, was for 12-14 tropical storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
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