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Tropical wave in Caribbean has small chance for development as it moves toward Gulf of Mexico

·4 min read

For a few hours Monday, the welcome message of no tropical cyclones expected over the next five days appeared on the National Hurricane Center's website.

The relief was short-lived, just like the systems that keep popping up and disappearing.

A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean has a low chance for development as it moves into the Bay of Campeche and then the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

It could bring even more rain to south Texas, which saw up to 10 inches in some locations as a tropical rainstorm moved across the state over the past few days, according to AccuWeather.

Later this week, that system could bring rain as far inland as Albuquerque, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Your guide to preparing for the 2022 hurricane season in Florida

Track all active storms

Excessive rainfall forecast

The Hurricane Center also is monitoring three other tropical waves, including a second one in the  Caribbean.

While the eastern Pacific has seen quite a few named storms — Tropical Depression Ivette developed Monday — the Atlantic basin has been much quieter. The last named storm was Tropical Storm Colin, which appeared over the Fourth of July weekend off South Carolina.

This year marks the first time since 1999 there have been no named storms between July 3 and Aug. 16, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

Although it started slow, 1999 did end up being a hyperactive hurricane season, Klotzbach added.

Revised seasonal forecast: Atlantic hurricane season off to slow start. But top forecasters still expect above-normal activity

WeatherTiger: Ominous steering currents for Florida may be on horizon as quiet hurricane season persists 

The next named storm of the 2022 season will be Danielle.

When is hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 16:

What's out there and where are they?

Tropical wave in southwestern Caribbean 8 a.m. Aug. 16, 2022.
Tropical wave in southwestern Caribbean 8 a.m. Aug. 16, 2022.

Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday.

Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is located between Haiti and the Turks and Caicos Islands. It's moving west at 17 mph, and bringing showers and thunderstorms to Hispaniola.

Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located north-northwest of Cape Verde. It's moving west at 17 mph.

Tropical wave 4: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is located between Cape Verde and the British Virgin Islands. It's moving west at 17 mph.

How likely are they to strengthen?

Tropical conditions 6 a.m. Aug. 16, 2022.
Tropical conditions 6 a.m. Aug. 16, 2022.

Tropical wave 1: Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 20 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Precipitation forecast for Aug. 16 through Aug. 21, 2022.
Precipitation forecast for Aug. 16 through Aug. 21, 2022.

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves but rain across south Texas is possible from the system expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.

The next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look at our special subscription offers here. 

This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: NHC watching 2 tropical waves in Caribbean, 2 in Atlantic