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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Vehicle Sales Continue to Bounce Back with Used Vehicle Sales Up Year-Over-Year for August 2020

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Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year

Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year from January - August
Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year from January - August
Retail Sales Change (DRS): % Difference Year-Over-Year from January - August

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,303,826 units in August 2020, down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,187,140 units, a decrease of 11% from a year ago ­­when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

An infographic accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/81b8bf98-f571-4fa4-884c-aa15e5f62b97

“The automotive industry momentum continues in August as the industry claws back more and more new vehicle sales each month since sales bottomed out in April,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “When you take into consideration that part of Labor Day weekend fell in August last year and this year it’s fully falling in September, it’s an even better story, with sales only dipping slightly year-over-year. When it comes to retail sales, we are consistently seeing that the automakers with the strongest SUV, crossover and truck lineups coupled with healthy inventory levels are continuing to outpace the brands that do not.”

“Used vehicle sales are actually up year-over-year, as consumers turn toward the used car market for cost savings during these uncertain economic times, and also due to some supply shortages on the new vehicle side,” added Lyman. “While this heightened demand is creating upward pressure on used retail prices, it is making it a great time for consumers to get top value on a trade-in on popular used vehicles.”

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 11% from a year ago and up 6% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Fleet sales for August 2020 are expected to be down 41% from a year and up 8% from July 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 11% from a year ago from 16.8 million units to 15 million units.

  • Used vehicle sales for August 2020 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 4% from a year ago and up 2% from July 2020.

“While retail sales for most automakers are up month-over-month, Kia is setting itself apart from the pack, as one of the only automakers that is up year-over-year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “Most of Kia’s portfolio is back to selling at pre-Covid-19 levels. Despite the Telluride, one of their most popular models, being in short-supply, Kia’s strong lineup with some of their newer SUV products such as the recently launched Seltos, is contributing to their strong gains.”

“Volkswagen is also showing strong recovery, thanks to its strong incentive offerings for consumers. While many automakers are scaling back on zero percentage offers for 84 months, Volkswagen is presenting one of the stronger programs to consumers with zero percentage financing for up-to 72 months on most VW models,” added Woolard. “Volkswagen’s strong crossover lineup with the Atlas Cross Sport and 3-Row Tiguan are successfully contributing to the industry’s appetite for utility vehicles.”

August 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

21,578

29,477

22,711

-26.8

%

-21.2

%

-5.0

%

-5.0

%

Daimler

21,927

30,218

26,850

-27.4

%

-21.9

%

-18.3

%

-18.3

%

FCA

169,959

215,240

157,025

-21.0

%

-15.0

%

8.2

%

8.2

%

Ford

181,845

209,953

174,978

-13.4

%

-6.7

%

3.9

%

3.9

%

GM

228,906

289,475

204,756

-20.9

%

-14.8

%

11.8

%

11.8

%

Honda

132,290

173,993

125,450

-24.0

%

-18.1

%

5.5

%

5.5

%

Hyundai

59,614

65,494

58,934

-9.0

%

-2.0

%

1.2

%

1.2

%

Kia

56,421

60,730

52,479

-7.1

%

0.1

%

7.5

%

7.5

%

Nissan

78,623

127,230

73,463

-38.2

%

-33.5

%

7.0

%

7.0

%

Subaru

48,508

70,039

51,458

-30.7

%

-25.4

%

-5.7

%

-5.7

%

Tesla

16,035

13,200

15,800

21.5

%

30.8

%

1.5

%

1.5

%

Toyota

188,251

248,334

168,791

-24.2

%

-18.4

%

11.5

%

11.5

%

Volkswagen Group

51,551

61,965

47,724

-16.8

%

-10.4

%

8.0

%

8.0

%

Industry

1,303,826

1,649,669

1,227,420

-21.0

%

-14.9

%

6.2

%

6.2

%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

20,575

27,091

22,156

-24.1

%

-18.2

%

-7.1

%

-7.1

%

Daimler

21,473

28,693

26,006

-25.2

%

-19.4

%

-17.4

%

-17.4

%

FCA

149,016

168,665

138,095

-11.6

%

-4.9

%

7.9

%

7.9

%

Ford

141,102

168,704

135,056

-16.4

%

-9.9

%

4.5

%

4.5

%

GM

194,754

229,693

175,013

-15.2

%

-8.7

%

11.3

%

11.3

%

Honda

131,652

172,717

124,883

-23.8

%

-17.9

%

5.4

%

5.4

%

Hyundai

55,478

60,120

54,881

-7.7

%

-0.6

%

1.1

%

1.1

%

Kia

54,901

53,825

51,508

2.0

%

9.8

%

6.6

%

6.6

%

Nissan

73,019

91,244

67,023

-20.0

%

-13.8

%

8.9

%

8.9

%

Subaru

47,496

68,834

50,184

-31.0

%

-25.7

%

-5.4

%

-5.4

%

Tesla

16,023

13,200

15,788

21.4

%

30.7

%

1.5

%

1.5

%

Toyota

182,566

240,706

166,235

-24.2

%

-18.3

%

9.8

%

9.8

%

Volkswagen Group

51,073

60,399

46,312

-15.4

%

-8.9

%

10.3

%

10.3

%

Industry

1,187,140

1,437,022

1,119,378

-17.4

%

-11.0

%

6.1

%

6.1

%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

1,003

2,386

555

-58.0

%

-54.7

%

80.8

%

80.8

%

Daimler

454

1,525

844

-70.2

%

-67.9

%

-46.2

%

-46.2

%

FCA

20,943

46,575

18,930

-55.0

%

-51.6

%

10.6

%

10.6

%

Ford

40,743

41,249

39,922

-1.2

%

6.4

%

2.1

%

2.1

%

GM

34,152

59,782

29,743

-42.9

%

-38.5

%

14.8

%

14.8

%

Honda

638

1,276

567

-50.0

%

-46.2

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

Hyundai

4,137

5,374

4,053

-23.0

%

-17.1

%

2.1

%

2.1

%

Kia

1,519

6,905

971

-78.0

%

-76.3

%

56.4

%

56.4

%

Nissan

5,604

35,986

6,440

-84.4

%

-83.2

%

-13.0

%

-13.0

%

Subaru

1,012

1,205

1,274

-16.0

%

-9.5

%

-20.6

%

-20.6

%

Tesla

12

-

12

-

-

-1.4

%

-1.4

%

Toyota

5,685

7,628

2,556

-25.5

%

-19.7

%

122.5

%

122.5

%

Volkswagen Group

478

1,566

1,412

-69.5

%

-67.1

%

-66.2

%

-66.2

%

Industry

116,686

212,647

108,042

-45.1

%

-40.9

%

8.0

%

8.0

%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

4.6

%

8.1

%

2.4

%

-42.6

%

90.3

%

Daimler

2.1

%

5.0

%

3.1

%

-59.0

%

-34.1

%

FCA

12.3

%

21.6

%

12.1

%

-43.1

%

2.2

%

Ford

22.4

%

19.6

%

22.8

%

14.0

%

-1.8

%

GM

14.9

%

20.7

%

14.5

%

-27.8

%

2.7

%

Honda

0.5

%

0.7

%

0.5

%

-34.2

%

6.7

%

Hyundai

6.9

%

8.2

%

6.9

%

-15.4

%

0.9

%

Kia

2.7

%

11.4

%

1.9

%

-76.3

%

45.5

%

Nissan

7.1

%

28.3

%

8.8

%

-74.8

%

-18.7

%

Subaru

2.1

%

1.7

%

2.5

%

21.3

%

-15.8

%

Tesla

0.1

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

-

-2.8

%

Toyota

3.0

%

3.1

%

1.5

%

-1.7

%

99.5

%

Volkswagen Group

0.9

%

2.5

%

3.0

%

-63.3

%

-68.7

%

Industry

8.9

%

12.9

%

8.8

%

-30.6

%

1.7

%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

BMW

1.7

%

1.8

%

1.9

%

Daimler

1.7

%

1.8

%

2.2

%

FCA

13.1

%

13.0

%

12.8

%

Ford

14.0

%

12.7

%

14.3

%

GM

17.6

%

17.5

%

16.7

%

Honda

10.2

%

10.5

%

10.2

%

Hyundai

4.6

%

4.0

%

4.8

%

Kia

4.3

%

3.7

%

4.3

%

Nissan

6.0

%

7.7

%

6.0

%

Subaru

3.7

%

4.2

%

4.2

%

Tesla

1.2

%

0.8

%

1.3

%

Toyota

14.5

%

15.1

%

13.8

%

Volkswagen Group

4.0

%

3.8

%

3.9

%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

BMW

1.7

%

1.9

%

2.0

%

Daimler

1.8

%

2.0

%

2.3

%

FCA

12.6

%

11.7

%

12.3

%

Ford

11.9

%

11.7

%

12.1

%

GM

16.5

%

16.0

%

15.6

%

Honda

11.1

%

12.0

%

11.2

%

Hyundai

4.7

%

4.2

%

4.9

%

Kia

4.6

%

3.7

%

4.6

%

Nissan

6.2

%

6.3

%

6.0

%

Subaru

4.0

%

4.8

%

4.5

%

Tesla

1.4

%

0.9

%

1.4

%

Toyota

15.4

%

16.8

%

14.9

%

Volkswagen Group

4.3

%

4.2

%

4.1

%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

CONTACT: TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com 424.258.8694