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TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales

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Inventory remains stable amid continuing microchip shortage

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,071,377 units in February 2022, down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.2 million, down 11% from February 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 935,604 units, down 12% from a year ago and up 4% from January 2022.

"After a volatile 2021 in terms of pricing and supply, this month we're seeing signs of stability. From a supply standpoint, we're seeing industry new listings roughly in line with January. Additionally, from a pricing standpoint things appear to be settling into a new equilibrium with the smallest month-over-month average price change in at least a year," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"This month we are seeing the lowest levels of leasing since the onset of the pandemic when there was a proliferation of extended term loans. Historically, leasing has been the go-to option for shoppers looking for the lowest payment but over the past year we have seen that shift," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "For shoppers configuring vehicles on TrueCar we're now seeing lower average payments for 72-month loans than 36-month leases."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for February 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Fleet sales for February 2022 are expected to be up 3% from a year ago and up 30% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Incentive spend is down 53% from last year.

  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down about 1% from January 2022.

  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 11% from a year ago at 14.2 million units.

  • Used vehicle sales for February 2022 are expected to reach 3.2 million, down 9% from a year ago and up 8% from January 2022.

  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.

  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

24,332

26,393

24,024

-7.8%

-7.8%

1.3%

1.3%

Daimler

19,927

20,317

20,400

-1.9%

-1.9%

-2.3%

-2.3%

Ford

136,021

161,834

142,445

-16.0%

-16.0%

-4.5%

-4.5%

GM

165,610

191,846

142,574

-13.7%

-13.7%

16.2%

16.2%

Honda

82,027

106,328

73,949

-22.9%

-22.9%

10.9%

10.9%

Hyundai

58,475

50,735

51,510

15.3%

15.3%

13.5%

13.5%

Kia

46,811

48,062

42,488

-2.6%

-2.6%

10.2%

10.2%

Nissan

63,335

86,138

59,742

-26.5%

-26.5%

6.0%

6.0%

Stellantis

140,377

151,912

125,265

-7.6%

-7.6%

12.1%

12.1%

Subaru

52,002

48,300

44,158

7.7%

7.7%

17.8%

17.8%

Tesla

42,105

21,550

40,165

95.4%

95.4%

4.8%

4.8%

Toyota

167,319

184,249

158,676

-9.2%

-9.2%

5.4%

5.4%

Volkswagen Group

36,919

46,846

37,971

-21.2%

-21.2%

-2.8%

-2.8%

Industry

1,071,377

1,196,008

1,002,006

-10.4%

-10.4%

6.9%

6.9%

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

23,767

25,170

23,618

-5.6%

-5.6%

0.6%

0.6%

Daimler

18,881

19,510

19,983

-3.2%

-3.2%

-5.5%

-5.5%

Ford

101,977

133,486

115,636

-23.6%

-23.6%

-11.8%

-11.8%

GM

128,488

169,301

124,119

-24.1%

-24.1%

3.5%

3.5%

Honda

80,999

105,612

73,637

-23.3%

-23.3%

10.0%

10.0%

Hyundai

54,158

46,218

50,967

17.2%

17.2%

6.3%

6.3%

Kia

42,719

45,710

40,907

-6.5%

-6.5%

4.4%

4.4%

Nissan

53,160

67,638

49,289

-21.4%

-21.4%

7.9%

7.9%

Stellantis

114,002

126,068

106,028

-9.6%

-9.6%

7.5%

7.5%

Subaru

50,748

47,214

42,512

7.5%

7.5%

19.4%

19.4%

Tesla

41,920

21,550

40,151

94.5%

94.5%

4.4%

4.4%

Toyota

159,320

172,198

140,160

-7.5%

-7.5%

13.7%

13.7%

Volkswagen Group

36,130

40,821

37,429

-11.5%

-11.5%

-3.5%

-3.5%

Industry

935,604

1,064,728

897,288

-12.1%

-12.1%

4.3%

4.3%

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

1,223

406

-53.8%

-53.8%

39.3%

39.3%

Daimler

1,046

807

417

29.6%

29.6%

150.7%

150.7%

Ford

34,044

28,348

26,809

20.1%

20.1%

27.0%

27.0%

GM

37,122

22,545

18,455

64.7%

64.7%

101.1%

101.1%

Honda

1,028

716

312

43.6%

43.6%

229.4%

229.4%

Hyundai

4,317

4,517

543

-4.4%

-4.4%

694.4%

694.4%

Kia

4,092

2,352

1,581

74.0%

74.0%

158.9%

158.9%

Nissan

10,175

18,500

10,453

-45.0%

-45.0%

-2.7%

-2.7%

Stellantis

26,375

25,844

19,237

2.1%

2.1%

37.1%

37.1%

Subaru

1,254

1,086

1,646

15.5%

15.5%

-23.8%

-23.8%

Tesla

185

-

14



1251.0%

1251.0%

Toyota

7,999

12,051

18,516

-33.6%

-33.6%

-56.8%

-56.8%

Volkswagen Group

789

6,025

542

-86.9%

-86.9%

45.7%

45.7%

Industry

135,773

131,280

104,718

3.4%

3.4%

29.7%

29.7%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

2.3%

4.6%

1.7%

-49.9%

37.5%

Daimler

5.2%

4.0%

2.0%

32.2%

156.6%

Ford

25.0%

17.5%

18.8%

42.9%

33.0%

GM

22.4%

11.8%

12.9%

90.7%

73.2%

Honda

1.3%

0.7%

0.4%

86.1%

197.0%

Hyundai

7.4%

8.9%

1.1%

-17.1%

599.8%

Kia

8.7%

4.9%

3.7%

78.6%

135.0%

Nissan

16.1%

21.5%

17.5%

-25.2%

-8.2%

Stellantis

18.8%

17.0%

15.4%

10.4%

22.3%

Subaru

2.4%

2.2%

3.7%

7.3%

-35.3%

Tesla

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%


1188.7%

Toyota

4.8%

6.5%

11.7%

-26.9%

-59.0%

Volkswagen Group

2.1%

12.9%

1.4%

-83.4%

49.8%

Industry

12.7%

11.0%

10.5%

15.5%

21.3%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

BMW

2.3%

2.2%

2.4%

Daimler

1.9%

1.7%

2.0%

Ford

12.7%

13.5%

14.2%

GM

15.5%

16.0%

14.2%

Honda

7.7%

8.9%

7.4%

Hyundai

5.5%

4.2%

5.1%

Kia

4.4%

4.0%

4.2%

Nissan

5.9%

7.2%

6.0%

Stellantis

13.1%

12.7%

12.5%

Subaru

4.9%

4.0%

4.4%

Tesla

3.9%

1.8%

4.0%

Toyota

15.6%

15.4%

15.8%

Volkswagen Group

3.4%

3.9%

3.8%


96.6%

95.7%

96.1%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

BMW

2.5%

2.4%

2.6%

Daimler

2.0%

1.8%

2.2%

Ford

10.9%

12.5%

12.9%

GM

13.7%

15.9%

13.8%

Honda

8.7%

9.9%

8.2%

Hyundai

5.8%

4.3%

5.7%

Kia

4.6%

4.3%

4.6%

Nissan

5.7%

6.4%

5.5%

Stellantis

12.2%

11.8%

11.8%

Subaru

5.4%

4.4%

4.7%

Tesla

4.5%

2.0%

4.5%

Toyota

17.0%

16.2%

15.6%

Volkswagen Group

3.9%

3.8%

4.2%


96.9%

95.8%

96.3%

ATP



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$61,979

$58,682

$62,415

5.6%

-0.7%

Daimler

$75,184

$63,174

$75,051

19.0%

0.2%

Ford

$48,441

$45,349

$48,794

6.8%

-0.7%

GM

$51,574

$42,789

$51,143

20.5%

0.8%

Honda

$35,490

$30,737

$34,690

15.5%

2.3%

Hyundai

$36,989

$30,965

$35,567

19.5%

4.0%

Kia

$33,048

$29,448

$34,079

12.2%

-3.0%

Nissan

$32,948

$29,173

$34,150

12.9%

-3.5%

Stellantis

$52,661

$43,538

$52,294

21.0%

0.7%

Subaru

$34,258

$31,062

$35,310

10.3%

-3.0%

Toyota

$40,204

$35,646

$39,813

12.8%

1.0%

Volkswagen Group

$46,378

$42,923

$46,303

8.0%

0.2%

Industry

$43,776

$38,163

$44,182

14.7%

-0.9%


$5,614


-$406



Incentives



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$2,242

$5,238

$2,795

-57.2%

-19.8%

Daimler

$1,774

$3,948

$2,083

-55.1%

-14.9%

Ford

$1,786

$3,350

$2,184

-46.7%

-18.2%

GM

$1,929

$4,533

$2,046

-57.5%

-5.7%

Honda

$1,186

$2,365

$1,249

-49.9%

-5.1%

Hyundai

$1,083

$2,268

$1,136

-52.3%

-4.7%

Kia

$1,403

$2,677

$1,753

-47.6%

-19.9%

Nissan

$1,888

$3,758

$2,010

-49.8%

-6.1%

Stellantis

$2,462

$4,628

$2,498

-46.8%

-1.4%

Subaru

$897

$1,321

$986

-32.1%

-9.0%

Toyota

$981

$2,548

$1,141

-61.5%

-14.0%

Volkswagen Group

$2,020

$3,714

$1,963

-45.6%

2.9%

Industry

$1,619

$3,429

$1,804

-52.8%

-10.3%


-$1,810


-$186



Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

3.6%

8.9%

4.5%

-59.5%

-19.2%

Daimler

2.4%

6.2%

2.8%

-62.3%

-15.0%

Ford

3.7%

7.4%

4.5%

-50.1%

-17.6%

GM

3.7%

10.6%

4.0%

-64.7%

-6.5%

Honda

3.3%

7.7%

3.6%

-56.6%

-7.2%

Hyundai

2.9%

7.3%

3.2%

-60.0%

-8.4%

Kia

4.2%

9.1%

5.1%

-53.3%

-17.4%

Nissan

5.7%

12.9%

5.9%

-55.5%

-2.6%

Stellantis

4.7%

10.6%

4.8%

-56.0%

-2.1%

Subaru

2.6%

4.3%

2.8%

-38.4%

-6.2%

Toyota

2.4%

7.1%

2.9%

-65.9%

-14.8%

Volkswagen Group

4.4%

8.7%

4.2%

-49.7%

2.7%

Industry

3.7%

9.0%

4.1%

-58.8%

-9.5%

Revenue



Manufacturer

Feb 2022 Forecast

Feb 2021 Actual

Jan 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$46,900,691,381

$45,642,691,291

$44,270,878,912

2.8%

5.9%

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

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SOURCE TrueCar.com