Global markets are on edge, waiting to see if President Trump will be impeached over accusations of foreign interference in the 2020 U.S. election after the release of a whistleblower complaint.
The complaint alleges that the Trump administration tried to cover the interference up, according to the New York Times. It also claims that Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani asked a predecessor of the Ukrainian president to “look into Joe Biden,” which Giuliani reportedly admitted doing to CNN's "Cuomo Prime Time.” The complaint also claims that Trump personally ordered to freeze aid to Ukraine. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments chief U.S. policy strategist, told Yahoo Finance’s On The Move that even if nothing comes of these allegations, it still may impact Trump’s likelihood of re-election.
“This is totally unchartered waters... It doesn’t affect earnings.. certainly not GDP, maybe consumer confidence plummets. I think the one thing markets have to worry about is that Trump's re-election looks a little less likely,” Valliere said. “I don't see him getting convicted but I do see him maybe having a really tough fight with Elizabeth Warren and it’s not totally out of the question that she could win and the markets really have to worry about that one.”
While some folks who Valliere talked to people on Capitol Hill thinks everything could get done by year end , he thinks it will drag into 2020.
“Trump has the ability maybe to use this as a foil, look it’s a Witch Hunt, say these left wing members of Congress are trying to undo the results of our last election. Trump is not without rhetorical arguments should this drag on,” he said.
Meanwhile members of Congress will be distracted by the impeachment.
“It’s going to be hard to get much done. I don’t see a drug pricing bill, I see tremendous acrimony over a budget that might not get done until New Year’s Eve and the Canadian deal, I think has lower prospects. Nancy Pelosi is keying all of this and now she’s got different priorities,” said Valliere, referring to the Speak of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Brooke DiPalma is a Producer for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma.