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U.S. Crude Supplies at 9-Month High

Zacks Equity Research

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed that crude stockpiles logged another increase to hit their highest level since June last year, as refiner demand weakened. The report further revealed that within the ‘refined products’ category, gasoline stocks fell, while distillate supplies were up from the week-ago levels.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report, containing data of the previous week ending Friday, outlines information regarding the weekly change in petroleum inventories held and produced by the U.S., both locally and abroad.

The report provides an overview of the level of reserves and their movements, thereby helping investors understand the demand/supply dynamics of petroleum products. It is an indicator of current oil prices and volatility that affect the businesses of the companies engaged in the oil and refining industry.

Analysis of the Data

Crude Oil: The federal government’s EIA report revealed that crude inventories rose by 2.62 million barrels for the week ending Mar 08, 2013, following a climb of 3.83 million barrels in the previous week.

The analysts surveyed by Platts – the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP), had expected oil stocks to go up some 2.3 million barrels. A drop in refinery utilization rates, together with an uptick in the level of imports and domestic production led to the eighth straight weekly stockpile build-up with the world's biggest oil consumer.

However, crude inventories at the Cushing terminal in Oklahoma – the key delivery hub for U.S. crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange – was down 1.53 million barrels from the previous week’s level to 49.32 million barrels. Stocks are currently just under the all-time high of 51.86 million barrels reached in January.

At 383.98 million barrels, current crude supplies are 10.5% above the year-earlier level, and comfortably exceed the upper limit of the average for this time of the year. The crude supply cover was up from 26.7 days in the previous week to 27.1 days. In the year-ago period, the supply cover was 23.7 days.

Gasoline: Supplies of gasoline were down for the fifth time in as many weeks, as domestic consumption strengthened. This was partially offset by higher production and imports.

The 3.57 million barrels withdrawal – significantly above analysts’ projections for a 1.5 million barrels decrease in supply level – took gasoline stockpiles down to 224.31 million barrels. Following this drawdown, the existing inventory level of the most widely used petroleum product is 1.7% lower than the year-earlier level despite being in the middle of the average range.

Distillate: Distillate fuel supplies (including diesel and heating oil) were up 83,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts’ expectations for a 2 million barrels drop in inventory level. The increase in distillate fuel stocks – the second in 3 weeks – could be attributed to weaker demand, as well as higher imports, partially offset by lower production.

At 120.44 million barrels, distillate supplies are 10.7% below the year-ago level and are in the lower limit of the average range for this time of the year.

Refinery Rates: Refinery utilization edged down 1.2% from the prior week to 81.0%.

Zacks Rank

A bullish data from the EIA generally acts as a positive catalyst for crude prices and buoy producers, such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP). With an improvement in the companies’ ability to generate positive earnings surprises, they can then move higher from their current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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Read the Full Research Report on MHP

Read the Full Research Report on COP

Read the Full Research Report on XOM

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