An overview of crude tanker industry (Part 5 of 10)
Where incremental oil occurs
Another important factor that could affect tanker demand is the location of incremental oil production. If countries like United States, China and Europe find domestic oil, it will negatively impact demand for import oil and tanker demand. Such situation would adversely affect crude tanker stocks like FRO, NAT, TNP, TNK and SEA.
Times are changing
In the past, the world has been reliant on OPEC’s (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil. But times are changing due to high oil prices and use of technology that non-OPEC producers are expected to contribute to a significant portion of incremental oil supply going forward. This can affect the logistics of global oil trade and demand for oil shipments.
Changes in world oil trade
The U.S. shale oil boom is one of the latest developments that’s disrupting the flow of world oil trade. Use of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling techniques have allowed businesses to pump significant amounts of oil in the United States that even the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude oil–U.S. benchmark) is now below the international benchmark’s Brent Crude.
WTI and Brent price spread
In the past, WTI prices have commanded a premium to Brent Crude since U.S. is the largest oil importer and the difference between the WTI and Brent price reflected the cost of transportation to bring such oil to the United States and U.S. oil was of higher quality. But a supply glut is putting downward pressure on domestic oil price. This makes it more attractive for refiners to use domestic crude than imported crude, which bodes poorly for crude tankers.
The U.S. Department of Energy is one place where investors can retrieve information on U.S. domestic oil production, and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) is a good source for oil production around the world. Two more indicators that investors can take a look at are Baker Hughes’ rotary rig count and well counts. Drillers are used to explore for oil and to construct wells for future oil production. Thus, drilling activity may suggest where U.S. oil production will be in the future. These indicators will also be available on our website soon.
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