Normally the morning of the monthly jobs report, released at 8:30 a.m., is a frenzy of speculation about how many jobs the economy added in the past month and what the national unemployment rate was. Today is no different. Here are the numbers the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could not release, as reported by 24/7 Wall St.:
Total non farm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was slightly lower at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade rose and and fell in the manufacturing sector.
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Most of these figures were forecast by economists based on ADP and monthly jobless claims numbers. Those forecasts turned out to be largely correct, as ADP reported that 166,000 jobs were added in the private sector in September.
So, according to the BLS:
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed were [an] improvement in August. The jobless rate is down from 7.8 percent a year ago.
In other words, experts would comment, while the jobs situation has improved very slightly over the summer, a slowing of the economy and dip in consumer confidence caused businesses to be highly conservative about job conditions.
The plight of the long-term unemployed did not improve, and has not for several months, as these workers find it had to locate work because of the stigma associated with a long stretch of labor force nonparticipation, as well as an erosion of skills that often comes when people are out of work for an extended time.
The Unemployment Situation -- September 2013 confirmed this:
In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was about down slightly at 4.2 million. These individuals accounted for 37.2 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 757,000.
There were other, very modest improvements in the jobless situation, as analyzed by hours worked and wages in September:
The civilian labor force participation rate rise to 63.1 percent in September. The employment population ratio, at 58.6 percent, was essentially unchanged.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 78,000 to 7.8 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
In September, 2.0 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 225,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 831,000 discouraged workers in September, down slightly from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in August had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Economists would remark that the improvement is hardly enough to offset what probably will be a rise in joblessness in October due to the possibility of a long shutdown in the federal government, which could add several hundred thousand people to the unemployment figures between now and year-end. This could push the unemployment rate back toward 8% by early 2014.
For those already working, there was also little to cheer:
The average workweek for all employees on private non farm payrolls dropped by 0.1 hour in September to 34.54 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek also dropped by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and non supervisory employees on private non farm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours.
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In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non farm payrolls rose by 2 cents to $24.03. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 53 cents, or 2.4 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and non supervisory employees rose by 2 cents to $20.22.
Employers already appear to be anxious about economic trouble in the fourth quarter.
And what would the jobs report be without the fine print:
Frequently asked question a about Employment and Unemployment Estimates
1. Why are there two monthly measures of employment?
The household survey and establishment survey both produce sample-based estimates of employment, and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment survey employment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of its much larger sample size. An over-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000. However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey because it includes self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey. The household survey also provides estimates of employment for demographic groups. For more information on the differences between the two surveys, please visit www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf.
2. Are undocumented immigrants counted in the surveys?
It is likely that both surveys include at least some undocumented immigrants. However, neither the establishment nor the household survey is designed to identify the legal status of workers. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in either survey. The establishment survey does not collect data on the legal status of workers. The household survey does include questions which identify the foreign and native born, but it does not include questions about the legal status of the foreign born. Data on the foreign and native born are published each month in table A-7 of The
Employment Situation news release.
3. Why does the establishment survey have revisions?
The establishment survey revises published estimates to improve its data series by incorporating additional information that was not available at the time of the initial publication of the estimates. The establishment survey revises its initial monthly estimates twice, in the immediately succeeding 2 months, to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors. For more information on the monthly revisions, please visit www.bls.gov/ces/cesrevinfo.htm. On an annual basis, the establishment survey incorporates a benchmark revision that re-anchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from unemployment insurance tax records. The benchmark helps to control for sampling and modeling errors in the estimates. For more information on the annual benchmark revision, please visit www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
4. Does the establishment survey sample include small firms?
Yes; about 40 percent of the establishment survey sample is comprised of business establishments with fewer than 20 employees. The establishment survey sample is designed to maximize the reliability of the statewide total nonfarm employment estimate; firms from all states, size classes, and industries are appropriately sampled to achieve that goal.
5. Does the establishment survey account for employment from new businesses?
Yes; monthly establishment survey estimates include an adjustment to account for the net employment change generated by business births and deaths. The adjustment comes from an econometric model that forecasts the monthly net jobs impact of business births and deaths based on the actual past values of the net impact that can be observed with a lag from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The establishment survey uses modeling rather than sampling for this purpose because the survey is not immediately able to bring new businesses into the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between the birth of a new firm and its appearance on the sampling frame and availability for selection. BLS adds new businesses to the survey twice a year.
6. Is the count of unemployed persons limited to just those people receiving unemployment insurance benefits?
No; the estimate of unemployment is based on a monthly sample survey of households. All persons who are without jobs and are actively seeking and available to work are included among the unemployed. (People on temporary layoff are included even if they do not actively seek work.) There is no requirement or question relating to unemployment insurance benefits in the monthly survey.
7. Does the official unemployment rate exclude people who want a job but are not currently looking for work?
Yes; however, there are separate estimates of persons outside the labor force who want a job, including those who are not currently looking because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers). In addition, alternative measures of labor underutilization (some of which include discouraged workers and other groups not officially counted as unemployed) are published each month in table A-15 of The Employment Situation news release. For more information about these alternative measures, please visit www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#altmeasures.
8. How can unusually severe weather affect employment and hours estimates?
In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Unusually severe weather is more likely to have an impact on average weekly hours than on employment. Average weekly hours are estimated for paid time during the pay period, including pay for holidays, sick leave, or other time off. The impact of severe weather on hours estimates typically, but not always, results in a reduction in average weekly hours. For example, some employees may be off work for part of the pay period and not receive pay for the time missed, while some workers, such as those dealing with cleanup or repair, may work extra hours. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work without pay for the entire pay period. Slightly more than 20 percent of all employees in the payroll survey sample have a weekly pay period. Employees who receive pay for any part of the pay period, even 1 hour, are counted in the payroll employment figures. It is not possible to quantify the effect of extreme weather on estimates of over-the-month change in employment. In the household survey, the reference period is generally the calendar week that includes the 12th of the month. Persons who miss the entire week's work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. The household survey collects data on the number of persons who had a job but were not at work due to bad weather. It also provides a measure of the number of persons who usually work full time but had reduced hours. Current and historical data are available on the household survey's most requested statistics page at http://data.bls.gov/cgibin/ surveymost?ln.
Economists need look no further. These are the unemployment figures for September 2013.