U.S. natgas futures tick lower on mild weather outlook

April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday and were headed for a weekly loss, weighed down by a milder weather view and increased supply. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 1.2 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.00 per million British thermal units(mmBtu) by 1055 EDT. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 103 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states. The normal for this time of year is 37 CDDs. "Weather-related demand in the near term remains low," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. However, "The market is also keeping an eye on outages at some of the LNG terminals. That's certainly going to help pull gas demand back here." Refinitiv sees average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January 2023. Prices fell 4% in the last session. For the week, prices were down about 0.6%. "We are maintaining a view that a $1 price handle will prove too tempting for well-capitalized major hedge accounts or funds to ignore with some scale-down speculative buying likely especially if export demand improves and gas production further stalls," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities put a near-normal 25 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage last week. That compares with an 8 bcf injection during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average rise of 28 bcf. The Biden administration on Thursday approved exports of liquefied natural gas from the Alaska LNG project, a document showed, as the United States competes with Russia to ship natural gas from the Arctic to Asia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year April April April 14 average 14(Forecast 7(Actual) April 14 ) U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 65 25 -- -- U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,920 1,855 -- -- U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 23.1% 18.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 1.97 2.12 6.70 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 13.29 13.65 31.83 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.60 12.62 29.22 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 117 103 163 141 143 U.S. GFS CDDs 41 33 41 40 37 U.S. GFS TDDs 158 136 204 181 180 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 99.9 100.1 100.3 - 89.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.5 6.9 7.1 - 8.6 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 106.5 107.0 107.4 - 98.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.1 - 2.6 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.0 5.0 4.9 - 5.1 U.S. LNG Exports 14.0 14.3 13.7 - 7.1 U.S. Commercial 9.3 6.8 7.0 - 8.7 U.S. Residential 13.4 8.5 8.8 - 12.5 U.S. Power Plant 29.0 28.5 29.8 - 24.9 U.S. Industrial 21.9 21.3 21.5 - 22.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 5.0 - 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 1.9 2.0 - 2.4 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 80.8 72.1 74.1 - 76.0 Total U.S. Demand 101.8 93.3 94.8 - 90.8 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Apr 14 Apr 7 Mar 31 Mar 24 Mar 17 Wind 13 16 14 14 15 Solar 5 4 4 3 3 Hydro 7 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 39 38 39 37 37 Coal 14 15 16 17 16 Nuclear 20 19 19 18 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.04 2.22 Transco Z6 New York 1.35 1.58 PG&E Citygate 5.07 5.82 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.31 1.47 Chicago Citygate 1.56 1.80 Algonquin Citygate 1.35 1.70 SoCal Citygate 8.22 8.25 Waha Hub 1.35 0.95 AECO 2.10 2.26 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 36.50 32.75 PJM West 35.25 40.50 Ercot North 22.25 19.50 Mid C 113.86 89.22 Palo Verde 42.75 45.50 SP-15 40.50 44.00 (Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis)